BNEF have updated their running forecast of global PV installations in 2024 to 592 GWdc, in the middle of their previous range estimate of 520 GWdc to 655 GWdc.
They have added remarkable guesstimates of total solar production capacity: 1.2 TW/yr for modules, 0.9 TW/yr for polysilicon. The current wholesale price for modules is a jaw-dropping $0.096 per watt. They do not opine whether 10c/watt is sustainable, though it doesn’t seem likely. BNEF do say that polysilicon is selling at a loss.
To get some perspective on these numbers, world electricity consumption was ca. 26,000 Twh in 2023, growing steadily at 2.7% - a trend that already includes a significant switch to electric vehicles, offset by heat pumps, smart controls and other efficiency gains. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html That’s an annual increase of ca. 700 Twh or 700,000 Gwh. With 8760 hours in the year, the increase equates to an artificial continuous equivalent output of 80 GW. 592 nominal GW of solar at a 20% capacity factor equates to 118 GW continuous equivalent, ignoring storage and distribution losses which must be much lower than 47%. Solar PV alone will more than meet all the increased demand, and fossil electricity production will enter its sunset years in 2025 at latest.
This prediction is not in the least surprising. It is consistent with, and tends to confirm, the IEA’s claim (using different methods) that energy-related global GHG emissions – basically electricity plus transport, process heat, ironmaking and cement - may have already peaked in 2023: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/ I know, I know, it should have been 20 years ago. We can still celebrate passing a milestone in our wheelchair marathon.
At a higher capacity factor of 40%, the new wind will produce 52 GW continuous equivalent; handy but under half as much as the new solar.
Wind power cannot match solar’s advantages in innovation, economies of factory mass production, modularity, simple installation, no-moving-parts reliability, and lower storage requirements for firming (overnight against weekly or fortnightly). It will retain large competitive niches at high latitudes and in winter, but it has clearly already become the junior partner. The gap will inevitably widen.
BNEF’s medium-term forecast is conservative. They predict solar installations will grow more slowly after 2024, and will actually fall in China from 2030. I don’t buy this. It’s a revolution. With solar panels at 10c/watt, coal generating plants like Eskom’s or Origin’s are actuarially worthless scrap metal. All over Africa, I expect village mechanics are learning how to instal $50 full-size solar panels without getting electrocuted - a lesser challenge than supplying mobile phone services every day in places like Somalia without a functioning government. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
With perovkites approaching commercialisation - probably as tandem addition to silicon PV to take conversion efficiency above 30% - we may see ongoing cost reductions. Yet it is already low cost enough that simple demand for electricity at least cost is driving growth. It is heading Zeno's paradox style ever closer to, but not ever reaching zero cost.
At some point demand will slow to replacement levels - the rooftop solar example shows how readily enough capacity to exceed requirements can be achieved; our own home solar/battery system makes 2 - 3 times what we use and would come close to enough for an EV for our modest requirements. And EV's can be a lot more than dumb demand; even without vehicle to home/grid capabilities plugged in EV's can become significant load leveling and shifting components of the grid. With V2H2G an EV can power a home in blackouts. With a million plugged in they could power a city.
We are still working out how to take full advantage of irregular times of electricity supply abundances and shift it around. The LFP battery revolution is already cutting costs in big ways, with sodium and iron battery chemistries in the wings, emerging as potential ways to lower storage costs further.
Just having some thoughts about Elon Musk boosting a tweet encouraging the assassination of the Democratic presidential candidate. Didn't this used to be illegal?
What are your thoughts, if any? Is Australia also entangled with Elon Musk?
Besides Tesla, Space X, Twitter, Neurolink, and AI he has a role in the solar industry in my state. Solar City, which he has 21% of has a 44% share of the US market.
How much in government contracts does Elon Musk have? How much of his wealth is from the US government?
Is this inability to disentangle from Musk a global problem? Or a sign the US privatization has doomed us to such things?
Maybe if no one knows I'll try to find out and loop back around after googling the answers to these questions.
Aren't there any standards for US military contractors? Here are some stories on this I found:
This article is OK. Too charitable, and too gossipy perhaps. And the real story about how the government can't disentangle is not there. But there are some people, like Mark Millie, being very sanguine and saying stupid things about him. So maybe that is an answer, in a way.
Apparently Musk took his tweet down. I think the push against his power is increasing. Tesla is definitely past its peak, and Twitter is (as demonstrated here) now just one of a number of platforms, which can be dispensed with if it continues to promote hate speech etc. SpaceX is the one where a US government takeover seems plausbile.
Also, the Starlink is a HUGE issue. He has all the satellites and US government doesn't know if they can trust him! And he is paid for using them on behalf of Ukraine. He can pull all kinds of crap., and may already have done so.
Very hazardous. Privatization got us here. Government sometimes does the lion's share of R&D and private individuals become hugely wealthy and powerful on government contracts. What's always interesting me is that the rightwing politicians pioneered this, then the Democrats (Clinton, Obama) jumped on board as it was essential to get corporate support--but it always used to piss of rightwing voters A LOT. They did not approve of giant government contracts and called this 'crony capitalism' back in the day.
Of course, creeps like Grover Norquist told them the solution to 'government waste' was 'kill the government.' By which they seemed to mean 'privatize more things.'
It has now led to state insufficiency against private entities, like everyone with half a brain. People like Gen. Mark Milley are either seduced, afraid, or hoping for a future job with private industry (or maybe all three). He absurdly claims Musk has 'taught him about tech in war' and has only glowing things to say about him. Is he truly so naive?
If First Solar is really claiming a 44% share of the US residential solar market, it is probably lying. This analyst gives it a more credible market share of 11. 36% in Q2 2024 https://csimarket.com/stocks/compet_glance.php?code=FSLR . Note that the US residential market is a $7.5bn backwater in a total solar market of $60bn.
Another cheering update on the solar revolution
BNEF have updated their running forecast of global PV installations in 2024 to 592 GWdc, in the middle of their previous range estimate of 520 GWdc to 655 GWdc.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2024-global-pv-market-outlook/
They have added remarkable guesstimates of total solar production capacity: 1.2 TW/yr for modules, 0.9 TW/yr for polysilicon. The current wholesale price for modules is a jaw-dropping $0.096 per watt. They do not opine whether 10c/watt is sustainable, though it doesn’t seem likely. BNEF do say that polysilicon is selling at a loss.
To get some perspective on these numbers, world electricity consumption was ca. 26,000 Twh in 2023, growing steadily at 2.7% - a trend that already includes a significant switch to electric vehicles, offset by heat pumps, smart controls and other efficiency gains. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html That’s an annual increase of ca. 700 Twh or 700,000 Gwh. With 8760 hours in the year, the increase equates to an artificial continuous equivalent output of 80 GW. 592 nominal GW of solar at a 20% capacity factor equates to 118 GW continuous equivalent, ignoring storage and distribution losses which must be much lower than 47%. Solar PV alone will more than meet all the increased demand, and fossil electricity production will enter its sunset years in 2025 at latest.
This prediction is not in the least surprising. It is consistent with, and tends to confirm, the IEA’s claim (using different methods) that energy-related global GHG emissions – basically electricity plus transport, process heat, ironmaking and cement - may have already peaked in 2023: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/ I know, I know, it should have been 20 years ago. We can still celebrate passing a milestone in our wheelchair marathon.
We have got into the habit of writing wind-and-solar as if they were equal partners in the transition, but this is no longer true. A comparable estimate of world wind installations in 2024 is 131 GW, up modestly from 117 GW in 2023. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/wind-power/2023-was-a-record-year-for-wind-installations-as-world-ramps-up-clean-energy-report-says/
At a higher capacity factor of 40%, the new wind will produce 52 GW continuous equivalent; handy but under half as much as the new solar.
Wind power cannot match solar’s advantages in innovation, economies of factory mass production, modularity, simple installation, no-moving-parts reliability, and lower storage requirements for firming (overnight against weekly or fortnightly). It will retain large competitive niches at high latitudes and in winter, but it has clearly already become the junior partner. The gap will inevitably widen.
BNEF’s medium-term forecast is conservative. They predict solar installations will grow more slowly after 2024, and will actually fall in China from 2030. I don’t buy this. It’s a revolution. With solar panels at 10c/watt, coal generating plants like Eskom’s or Origin’s are actuarially worthless scrap metal. All over Africa, I expect village mechanics are learning how to instal $50 full-size solar panels without getting electrocuted - a lesser challenge than supplying mobile phone services every day in places like Somalia without a functioning government. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/Screenshot-2024-08-27-at-10.22.33%E2%80%AFAM-1536x979.png
Wind is adding a fair bit too, though it is slowing in most places.
With perovkites approaching commercialisation - probably as tandem addition to silicon PV to take conversion efficiency above 30% - we may see ongoing cost reductions. Yet it is already low cost enough that simple demand for electricity at least cost is driving growth. It is heading Zeno's paradox style ever closer to, but not ever reaching zero cost.
At some point demand will slow to replacement levels - the rooftop solar example shows how readily enough capacity to exceed requirements can be achieved; our own home solar/battery system makes 2 - 3 times what we use and would come close to enough for an EV for our modest requirements. And EV's can be a lot more than dumb demand; even without vehicle to home/grid capabilities plugged in EV's can become significant load leveling and shifting components of the grid. With V2H2G an EV can power a home in blackouts. With a million plugged in they could power a city.
We are still working out how to take full advantage of irregular times of electricity supply abundances and shift it around. The LFP battery revolution is already cutting costs in big ways, with sodium and iron battery chemistries in the wings, emerging as potential ways to lower storage costs further.
Just having some thoughts about Elon Musk boosting a tweet encouraging the assassination of the Democratic presidential candidate. Didn't this used to be illegal?
What are your thoughts, if any? Is Australia also entangled with Elon Musk?
Besides Tesla, Space X, Twitter, Neurolink, and AI he has a role in the solar industry in my state. Solar City, which he has 21% of has a 44% share of the US market.
How much in government contracts does Elon Musk have? How much of his wealth is from the US government?
Is this inability to disentangle from Musk a global problem? Or a sign the US privatization has doomed us to such things?
Maybe if no one knows I'll try to find out and loop back around after googling the answers to these questions.
Aren't there any standards for US military contractors? Here are some stories on this I found:
https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/in-the-news/a-senator-thinks-elon-musks-foreign-entanglements-are-a-problem
This article gives an overview. I'm not crazy about because it fails to mention that Musk MADE antisemitic comments on X.
https://www.npr.org/2023/12/07/1217973763/what-elon-musks-involvement-in-politics-means-for-the-world
He still does it, and the ADL doesn't care.
This article is OK. Too charitable, and too gossipy perhaps. And the real story about how the government can't disentangle is not there. But there are some people, like Mark Millie, being very sanguine and saying stupid things about him. So maybe that is an answer, in a way.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule
Apparently Musk took his tweet down. I think the push against his power is increasing. Tesla is definitely past its peak, and Twitter is (as demonstrated here) now just one of a number of platforms, which can be dispensed with if it continues to promote hate speech etc. SpaceX is the one where a US government takeover seems plausbile.
Also, the Starlink is a HUGE issue. He has all the satellites and US government doesn't know if they can trust him! And he is paid for using them on behalf of Ukraine. He can pull all kinds of crap., and may already have done so.
Very hazardous. Privatization got us here. Government sometimes does the lion's share of R&D and private individuals become hugely wealthy and powerful on government contracts. What's always interesting me is that the rightwing politicians pioneered this, then the Democrats (Clinton, Obama) jumped on board as it was essential to get corporate support--but it always used to piss of rightwing voters A LOT. They did not approve of giant government contracts and called this 'crony capitalism' back in the day.
Of course, creeps like Grover Norquist told them the solution to 'government waste' was 'kill the government.' By which they seemed to mean 'privatize more things.'
It has now led to state insufficiency against private entities, like everyone with half a brain. People like Gen. Mark Milley are either seduced, afraid, or hoping for a future job with private industry (or maybe all three). He absurdly claims Musk has 'taught him about tech in war' and has only glowing things to say about him. Is he truly so naive?
If First Solar is really claiming a 44% share of the US residential solar market, it is probably lying. This analyst gives it a more credible market share of 11. 36% in Q2 2024 https://csimarket.com/stocks/compet_glance.php?code=FSLR . Note that the US residential market is a $7.5bn backwater in a total solar market of $60bn.
Yes, he’s not got a substantial stake in the global market. He’s just got a lot of investments everywhere.
Tesla has an absurd value, more than Toyota. Everyone is investing in Tesla. Is that why they never bother to check him in other areas?
Not sure I get how this guy can make death threats on US officials, and be friends with Putin but get US money from the US security apparatus.