BNEF have updated their running forecast of global PV installations in 2024 to 592 GWdc, in the middle of their previous range estimate of 520 GWdc to 655 GWdc.
They have added remarkable guesstimates of total solar production capacity: 1.2 TW/yr for modules, 0.9 TW/yr for polysilicon. The current wholesale price for modules is a jaw-dropping $0.096 per watt. They do not opine whether 10c/watt is sustainable, though it doesn’t seem likely. BNEF do say that polysilicon is selling at a loss.
To get some perspective on these numbers, world electricity consumption was ca. 26,000 Twh in 2023, growing steadily at 2.7% - a trend that already includes a significant switch to electric vehicles, offset by heat pumps, smart controls and other efficiency gains. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html That’s an annual increase of ca. 700 Twh or 700,000 Gwh. With 8760 hours in the year, the increase equates to an artificial continuous equivalent output of 80 GW. 592 nominal GW of solar at a 20% capacity factor equates to 118 GW continuous equivalent, ignoring storage and distribution losses which must be much lower than 47%. Solar PV alone will more than meet all the increased demand, and fossil electricity production will enter its sunset years in 2025 at latest.
This prediction is not in the least surprising. It is consistent with, and tends to confirm, the IEA’s claim (using different methods) that energy-related global GHG emissions – basically electricity plus transport, process heat, ironmaking and cement - may have already peaked in 2023: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/ I know, I know, it should have been 20 years ago. We can still celebrate passing a milestone in our wheelchair marathon.
At a higher capacity factor of 40%, the new wind will produce 52 GW continuous equivalent; handy but under half as much as the new solar.
Wind power cannot match solar’s advantages in innovation, economies of factory mass production, modularity, simple installation, no-moving-parts reliability, and lower storage requirements for firming (overnight against weekly or fortnightly). It will retain large competitive niches at high latitudes and in winter, but it has clearly already become the junior partner. The gap will inevitably widen.
BNEF’s medium-term forecast is conservative. They predict solar installations will grow more slowly after 2024, and will actually fall in China from 2030. I don’t buy this. It’s a revolution. With solar panels at 10c/watt, coal generating plants like Eskom’s or Origin’s are actuarially worthless scrap metal. All over Africa, I expect village mechanics are learning how to instal $50 full-size solar panels without getting electrocuted - a lesser challenge than supplying mobile phone services every day in places like Somalia without a functioning government. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
Just having some thoughts about Elon Musk boosting a tweet encouraging the assassination of the Democratic presidential candidate. Didn't this used to be illegal?
What are your thoughts, if any? Is Australia also entangled with Elon Musk?
Besides Tesla, Space X, Twitter, Neurolink, and AI he has a role in the solar industry in my state. Solar City, which he has 21% of has a 44% share of the US market.
How much in government contracts does Elon Musk have? How much of his wealth is from the US government?
Is this inability to disentangle from Musk a global problem? Or a sign the US privatization has doomed us to such things?
Maybe if no one knows I'll try to find out and loop back around after googling the answers to these questions.
Aren't there any standards for US military contractors? Here are some stories on this I found:
This article is OK. Too charitable, and too gossipy perhaps. And the real story about how the government can't disentangle is not there. But there are some people, like Mark Millie, being very sanguine and saying stupid things about him. So maybe that is an answer, in a way.
Another cheering update on the solar revolution
BNEF have updated their running forecast of global PV installations in 2024 to 592 GWdc, in the middle of their previous range estimate of 520 GWdc to 655 GWdc.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2024-global-pv-market-outlook/
They have added remarkable guesstimates of total solar production capacity: 1.2 TW/yr for modules, 0.9 TW/yr for polysilicon. The current wholesale price for modules is a jaw-dropping $0.096 per watt. They do not opine whether 10c/watt is sustainable, though it doesn’t seem likely. BNEF do say that polysilicon is selling at a loss.
To get some perspective on these numbers, world electricity consumption was ca. 26,000 Twh in 2023, growing steadily at 2.7% - a trend that already includes a significant switch to electric vehicles, offset by heat pumps, smart controls and other efficiency gains. https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/electricity-domestic-consumption-data.html That’s an annual increase of ca. 700 Twh or 700,000 Gwh. With 8760 hours in the year, the increase equates to an artificial continuous equivalent output of 80 GW. 592 nominal GW of solar at a 20% capacity factor equates to 118 GW continuous equivalent, ignoring storage and distribution losses which must be much lower than 47%. Solar PV alone will more than meet all the increased demand, and fossil electricity production will enter its sunset years in 2025 at latest.
This prediction is not in the least surprising. It is consistent with, and tends to confirm, the IEA’s claim (using different methods) that energy-related global GHG emissions – basically electricity plus transport, process heat, ironmaking and cement - may have already peaked in 2023: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/ I know, I know, it should have been 20 years ago. We can still celebrate passing a milestone in our wheelchair marathon.
We have got into the habit of writing wind-and-solar as if they were equal partners in the transition, but this is no longer true. A comparable estimate of world wind installations in 2024 is 131 GW, up modestly from 117 GW in 2023. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/wind-power/2023-was-a-record-year-for-wind-installations-as-world-ramps-up-clean-energy-report-says/
At a higher capacity factor of 40%, the new wind will produce 52 GW continuous equivalent; handy but under half as much as the new solar.
Wind power cannot match solar’s advantages in innovation, economies of factory mass production, modularity, simple installation, no-moving-parts reliability, and lower storage requirements for firming (overnight against weekly or fortnightly). It will retain large competitive niches at high latitudes and in winter, but it has clearly already become the junior partner. The gap will inevitably widen.
BNEF’s medium-term forecast is conservative. They predict solar installations will grow more slowly after 2024, and will actually fall in China from 2030. I don’t buy this. It’s a revolution. With solar panels at 10c/watt, coal generating plants like Eskom’s or Origin’s are actuarially worthless scrap metal. All over Africa, I expect village mechanics are learning how to instal $50 full-size solar panels without getting electrocuted - a lesser challenge than supplying mobile phone services every day in places like Somalia without a functioning government. We ain’t seen nothing yet.
https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/Screenshot-2024-08-27-at-10.22.33%E2%80%AFAM-1536x979.png
Just having some thoughts about Elon Musk boosting a tweet encouraging the assassination of the Democratic presidential candidate. Didn't this used to be illegal?
What are your thoughts, if any? Is Australia also entangled with Elon Musk?
Besides Tesla, Space X, Twitter, Neurolink, and AI he has a role in the solar industry in my state. Solar City, which he has 21% of has a 44% share of the US market.
How much in government contracts does Elon Musk have? How much of his wealth is from the US government?
Is this inability to disentangle from Musk a global problem? Or a sign the US privatization has doomed us to such things?
Maybe if no one knows I'll try to find out and loop back around after googling the answers to these questions.
Aren't there any standards for US military contractors? Here are some stories on this I found:
https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/in-the-news/a-senator-thinks-elon-musks-foreign-entanglements-are-a-problem
This article gives an overview. I'm not crazy about because it fails to mention that Musk MADE antisemitic comments on X.
https://www.npr.org/2023/12/07/1217973763/what-elon-musks-involvement-in-politics-means-for-the-world
He still does it, and the ADL doesn't care.
This article is OK. Too charitable, and too gossipy perhaps. And the real story about how the government can't disentangle is not there. But there are some people, like Mark Millie, being very sanguine and saying stupid things about him. So maybe that is an answer, in a way.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule