Sorry to hear about your injury. Exercise is so beneficial to my own physical and mental health. Best of luck with your rehabilitation.
If you want some reading ideas, I recently finished Ben S Bernanke’s Monetary Policy in the 21st Century. It would probably not contain anything you don’t know, but it was well written and interesting. I am looking forward to Brad de Long’s Slouching Towards Utopia next month. Among other things, it appears like a spirited defence of social democracy. I will be keen to hear your thoughts on this once you’ve read it.
1. If you look at the Senate mid terms model at 538, there is no chance of the Democrats getting a filibuster proof majority, so best to have objectives which are realistic.
2. That model shows there is a good chance of the Democrats having a majority in the Senate after the midterms which will be help to limit the damage to democracy by the Trump cult .
3. A bipartisan Senate group is proposing amendments to the Electoral Count Act which will make it more difficult for the Trump cult to try and invalidate the 2024 presidential election result as they tried on Jan 6. There is apparently a good chance these amendments will get enough votes to withstand the filibuster.
4. The crucial election is the 2024 Presidential election and the primaries running up to it. There are many many things the anti-Trump forces can do over the next 2 years to resist the Trump cult. Lots of Democrats moving to the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia etc, for example, would be a very effective way of keeping these States in the Democratic presidential column. With many people able to work remotely, I don't know why Democrats are not doing this. (Or hopefully maybe they are and they're keeping it quiet). The best strategy for the anti-Trump forces is to fight and win the battle at the local level. which is part of what you are suggesting John
5. Notwithstanding what I have said above, there is no question the situation is dire. There are many many scenarios in which the Trump forces prevail. But it is not hopeless. And some of the scenarios are a short term loss of democracy only. The 2000 presidential election was stolen from the Democrats because of the Florida Secretary of State and the Supreme Court, and the regime of George W Bush and Dick Cheney did a huge amount of damage over the next 4 years. But US democracy somewhat recovered.
6. Apart from the Democrats winning the war against the Trump cult, the other possibility is that the Republicans and their backers like Murdoch will decide that Trump's liabilities now exceed his assets, and will back someone like DeSantis instead. There are significant issues with DeSantis but he would probably be better than Trump. But a DeSantis win is clearly a fifth best option.
Lots of commentators think/hope DeSantis will defeat Trump but I'm not sure the Republicans have the smarts to defeat the Trump cult. The Republican Senators had their chance to convict Trump after Jan 6 and that would have taken him out of the game, but they chose not to - presumably because they were not willing to bear the short term pain of the response from the Trump base. But that decision has had its consequences, and they may not get another chance.
Fair enough. And a simple majority willing to end the filibuster is probably only 51 Democrat Senators which according to 538 there is a 47% probability of at this point - so quite achievable. (For 52 Democrat Senators it's a probability of 34%, so more difficult if Sinema also decides to be stubborn)
Hopeful about the amendments to the Electoral Count Act. Getting more people voting is the go as well. Perhaps the successful mobilisation of pro-choice vote will be a big help.
The filibuster is a weird custom. That’s right, custom. There is no law that sanctions it.
The US Senate already heavily favours a minority as each state, no matter how small, has the same number of senators. So how does allowing 40% to de fact veto most types of legislation make any kind of sense?
The 20 smallest states represent 11% of the US population. Allowing them a de facto veto (assuming they are all Republican, which is not that far wrong) is not that different to e.g. allowing white South Africans a minority veto. If you target is 50% of the Senate, you can achieve that with states representing less than 18% of the voting population.
A presidential election is not quite as skewed as electoral votes also have a population-based component. Even so, which allow 2 of 3 tiers of elected government to have the same anti-democratic bias?
Has any progressive party been that 'bold' in recent times, and successful. I know unprecedented times calls for unprecedented action, ... but it would be good to have some indication the strategy has worked in the past.
Pity there is little scope for third force (teal) candidates to succeed.
HI, Hope you are recovering well from your injuries. I am wondering if the upcoming state elections occurring between federal elections, are similar in some ways to the mid terms, in that they give the voter an opportunity to cast an opinion.
Depressing indeed.
Sorry to hear about your injury. Exercise is so beneficial to my own physical and mental health. Best of luck with your rehabilitation.
If you want some reading ideas, I recently finished Ben S Bernanke’s Monetary Policy in the 21st Century. It would probably not contain anything you don’t know, but it was well written and interesting. I am looking forward to Brad de Long’s Slouching Towards Utopia next month. Among other things, it appears like a spirited defence of social democracy. I will be keen to hear your thoughts on this once you’ve read it.
1. If you look at the Senate mid terms model at 538, there is no chance of the Democrats getting a filibuster proof majority, so best to have objectives which are realistic.
2. That model shows there is a good chance of the Democrats having a majority in the Senate after the midterms which will be help to limit the damage to democracy by the Trump cult .
3. A bipartisan Senate group is proposing amendments to the Electoral Count Act which will make it more difficult for the Trump cult to try and invalidate the 2024 presidential election result as they tried on Jan 6. There is apparently a good chance these amendments will get enough votes to withstand the filibuster.
4. The crucial election is the 2024 Presidential election and the primaries running up to it. There are many many things the anti-Trump forces can do over the next 2 years to resist the Trump cult. Lots of Democrats moving to the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia etc, for example, would be a very effective way of keeping these States in the Democratic presidential column. With many people able to work remotely, I don't know why Democrats are not doing this. (Or hopefully maybe they are and they're keeping it quiet). The best strategy for the anti-Trump forces is to fight and win the battle at the local level. which is part of what you are suggesting John
5. Notwithstanding what I have said above, there is no question the situation is dire. There are many many scenarios in which the Trump forces prevail. But it is not hopeless. And some of the scenarios are a short term loss of democracy only. The 2000 presidential election was stolen from the Democrats because of the Florida Secretary of State and the Supreme Court, and the regime of George W Bush and Dick Cheney did a huge amount of damage over the next 4 years. But US democracy somewhat recovered.
6. Apart from the Democrats winning the war against the Trump cult, the other possibility is that the Republicans and their backers like Murdoch will decide that Trump's liabilities now exceed his assets, and will back someone like DeSantis instead. There are significant issues with DeSantis but he would probably be better than Trump. But a DeSantis win is clearly a fifth best option.
Lots of commentators think/hope DeSantis will defeat Trump but I'm not sure the Republicans have the smarts to defeat the Trump cult. The Republican Senators had their chance to convict Trump after Jan 6 and that would have taken him out of the game, but they chose not to - presumably because they were not willing to bear the short term pain of the response from the Trump base. But that decision has had its consequences, and they may not get another chance.
You don't need a filibuster proof majority as long as you have a simple majority willing to end a filibuster
Fair enough. And a simple majority willing to end the filibuster is probably only 51 Democrat Senators which according to 538 there is a 47% probability of at this point - so quite achievable. (For 52 Democrat Senators it's a probability of 34%, so more difficult if Sinema also decides to be stubborn)
Crucial that Dems hold the House. If that happens, they will be very likely to get to 52 in the Senate
Hopeful about the amendments to the Electoral Count Act. Getting more people voting is the go as well. Perhaps the successful mobilisation of pro-choice vote will be a big help.
The filibuster is a weird custom. That’s right, custom. There is no law that sanctions it.
The US Senate already heavily favours a minority as each state, no matter how small, has the same number of senators. So how does allowing 40% to de fact veto most types of legislation make any kind of sense?
The 20 smallest states represent 11% of the US population. Allowing them a de facto veto (assuming they are all Republican, which is not that far wrong) is not that different to e.g. allowing white South Africans a minority veto. If you target is 50% of the Senate, you can achieve that with states representing less than 18% of the voting population.
Numbers here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/04/18/you-cant-understand-whats-happened-to-the-senate-without-these-two-graphs/
A presidential election is not quite as skewed as electoral votes also have a population-based component. Even so, which allow 2 of 3 tiers of elected government to have the same anti-democratic bias?
Has any progressive party been that 'bold' in recent times, and successful. I know unprecedented times calls for unprecedented action, ... but it would be good to have some indication the strategy has worked in the past.
Pity there is little scope for third force (teal) candidates to succeed.
HI, Hope you are recovering well from your injuries. I am wondering if the upcoming state elections occurring between federal elections, are similar in some ways to the mid terms, in that they give the voter an opportunity to cast an opinion.
Wonderful piece. Have you seen Gore Vidal’s essay on US politics and constitution? If not I can dig it up.
I haven't a link would be great
Here is link. I have .pdf if you cannot access. It’s actually a long nook review but Vidal but a fanarkling good read.
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1981/02/05/the-second-american-revolution/