All or nothing
I was going to do some more work on this post, but it's being overtaken by events, so here it is
Among the many things to be depressed about at the moment, the impending end of US democracy is near the top of my list. The recent Republican primaries brought that one step closer. It’s now clear that unless they are stopped Republican officials in most states are ready to overturn any election result they do not like.
A necessary though not sufficient condition stop the Republicans is retaining Democratic control of the US Congress at the midterm elections in November with a margin sufficient to end a filibuster in the Senate, and pass voting rights legislation preventing state officials from overturning elections or returning bogus electors in a presidential election.
There are two broad strategies being urged on the Democrats. The first pushed by commentators including David Shor and Ruy Teixera is to win back the ‘white working class’, that is, white voters with low education, particularly in rural areas. Some but not all ‘white working class’ voters are wage workers with low income and wealth . However a large portion are relatively well off retirees. The central idea for Shor and Teixera is to soft pedal cultural issues and focus on promising economic benefits from moderately progressive, but not radical economic policies.
Whatever the merits of this approach in general, it’s a recipe for failure this time around. The incumbent party usually loses ground in midterm elections unless the economy is doing spectacularly well. That’s not the perception are the average voter, concerned more about inflation and shortages than about unemployment. A pitch to centrist voters might limit democratic losses but is highly unlikely to secure the victory that is needed.
The alternative is to make the election a referendum on the Republican Party, including Trump, the insurrection, the Supreme Court, and Christian nationalism. The starting results of the abortion referendum in Kansas suggest that if the election can be framed in these terms, the Democrats had a strong chance of winning and of forming a coalition that can win again in 2024. A big success would also split the Republicans, potentially emboldening business conservatives to break with the current Trumpist majority.
Mobilising single-issue pro-choice voters is part of the strategy. But, as far as possible, the aim should be to present the attack on abortion rights as part of a comprehensive package of opposition to freedom and democracy. One part of that is rejecting any suggestion of moving on beyond the insurrection. Trump and everyone involved should be prosecuted, making it impossible for the rightwing media to bury the issue as they have done. Christian nationalism should be used in the same way as the right used spurious ideas like ‘neo-Marxism’ and ‘critical race theory’ to attack liberals and centrist Dems alike.
I’ll be interested in thoughts on this, but not in any commentary to the effect that Democrats and Republicans are the same. Anyone who wants to express this view is welcome to take it here. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ernst_Thaelmann_Berlin.JPEG
Depressing indeed.
Sorry to hear about your injury. Exercise is so beneficial to my own physical and mental health. Best of luck with your rehabilitation.
If you want some reading ideas, I recently finished Ben S Bernanke’s Monetary Policy in the 21st Century. It would probably not contain anything you don’t know, but it was well written and interesting. I am looking forward to Brad de Long’s Slouching Towards Utopia next month. Among other things, it appears like a spirited defence of social democracy. I will be keen to hear your thoughts on this once you’ve read it.
1. If you look at the Senate mid terms model at 538, there is no chance of the Democrats getting a filibuster proof majority, so best to have objectives which are realistic.
2. That model shows there is a good chance of the Democrats having a majority in the Senate after the midterms which will be help to limit the damage to democracy by the Trump cult .
3. A bipartisan Senate group is proposing amendments to the Electoral Count Act which will make it more difficult for the Trump cult to try and invalidate the 2024 presidential election result as they tried on Jan 6. There is apparently a good chance these amendments will get enough votes to withstand the filibuster.
4. The crucial election is the 2024 Presidential election and the primaries running up to it. There are many many things the anti-Trump forces can do over the next 2 years to resist the Trump cult. Lots of Democrats moving to the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia etc, for example, would be a very effective way of keeping these States in the Democratic presidential column. With many people able to work remotely, I don't know why Democrats are not doing this. (Or hopefully maybe they are and they're keeping it quiet). The best strategy for the anti-Trump forces is to fight and win the battle at the local level. which is part of what you are suggesting John
5. Notwithstanding what I have said above, there is no question the situation is dire. There are many many scenarios in which the Trump forces prevail. But it is not hopeless. And some of the scenarios are a short term loss of democracy only. The 2000 presidential election was stolen from the Democrats because of the Florida Secretary of State and the Supreme Court, and the regime of George W Bush and Dick Cheney did a huge amount of damage over the next 4 years. But US democracy somewhat recovered.
6. Apart from the Democrats winning the war against the Trump cult, the other possibility is that the Republicans and their backers like Murdoch will decide that Trump's liabilities now exceed his assets, and will back someone like DeSantis instead. There are significant issues with DeSantis but he would probably be better than Trump. But a DeSantis win is clearly a fifth best option.
Lots of commentators think/hope DeSantis will defeat Trump but I'm not sure the Republicans have the smarts to defeat the Trump cult. The Republican Senators had their chance to convict Trump after Jan 6 and that would have taken him out of the game, but they chose not to - presumably because they were not willing to bear the short term pain of the response from the Trump base. But that decision has had its consequences, and they may not get another chance.