I now make a point of not reading political journalists. A lot of things are “opinions” including advice you receive from a medical specialist or barrister. The difference is they have a significant body of research behind them. Political journalists such write things based on their own biases and observations. I was reading an opinion piece in the NYT, by that Cohn bloke, and I was thinking what do you to support this? Even opinion polls irk me. What can they tell us other than what a group of people think at a given movement in time? Aren’t they wholly dependent on the question asked? Accordingly I don’t waste my time reading political commentary.
About a third of young French voters (32%) voted for Le Pen's far right National Rally at the last French election but even more voted for the far left. Interestingly, slightly less over 70s (29%) voted for National Rally, who had their biggest support in the 50-69 age group.
As the Muslim population grows in Western Europe, and Islamist terrorism grows along with it, I suspect young indigenous Europeans will increasingly move to the far right and also the far left, as they are already doing in France, which already has a large Muslim minority. The centre left and centre right will be obliterated. Europe has no future as extremism and ethno-religious tensions will eventually result in failed states that look like Lebanon.
I thank my parents for immigrating to Australia, where "Stop the Boats" and better managed multiculturalism means we have a chance to avoid Europe's decline and fall!
Last week I speaking to a cabbie who commented that the problem for Europe is the undocumented immigrants. He stated that obtaining residency status in Australia is very demanding. Make one mistake and you must go through the whole process again. Australia has done well because we can regulate our immigration intake, the result being an intake composed of individuals committed not to just escaping an undesirable situation, but also prepared to change their life to become citizens in a new country.
I don't think the current iteration of National Rally is extreme either, although I'd still call it far right. The most successful part of the left alliance in France's recent election was France Unbowed, which is further left than the Socialist Party, which used to dominate the French left.
I expect economic malaise, nativism and demographic shifts in Europe will push the left and right further apart until true extremists dominate on both sides. I hope I'm wrong but my youthful optimism long ago gave way to middle aged pessimism. Who could ever have predicted Trumpism, or Spud as our most likely next PM?
Self-evidently, "Stop the boats" is the only reason One Nation doesn't capture 20% of the federal vote and we have less Islamist refugees and their progeny engaging in stabbings, bombings and beheadings than the less fortunate European countries. Speaking of which, from today's German news:
" The man suspected of the stabbing in Solingen has turned himself in, a spokesperson for the Interior Ministry of North Rhine-Westphalia told the news agency DPA ... the man, still covered in blood, approached the officers shortly after 11 p.m ... the suspect is a 26-year-old Syrian, who came to Germany in 2022 and applied for asylum in Bielefeld."
The big winners from this latest terror attack will be the far right AfD and the big losers will be the centre left and centre right, both of whom invited the foxes into hen house.
In Australia there's the stereotype of the inner city elite green voter which gives us a whole new axis on which to think about wealth effects (and whether that idea even works when nihilism reaches 95% in the over-50's who make up most of said elite). I suspect that's more an education effect than a wealth one though.
Well blow me down you call Sir drop knee Starmers party left, next you will say that the German Greens are left after Annalenas backfip to be an OTAN Russophobe US neocon supplicant even after Nordstream had a job done on it by her bosses in Washingtons whole of state miieu and whilst her economy implodes due to the loss of cheap energy now replaced by the Empires expensive LNG via tanker. Now think Marles and his subs for war against our major trading partner, could that also be considered left(sic) I wonder. Bring back our social democrat Gough and then you could use the term left with a clear conscience.
Like the rest of the "many commentators" you mention, the author you link to seems to have written the conclusion of the article before looking at the data which shows Reform on a miserable 12 per cent among young men, with the Tories doing even worse (as I already pointed out in the OP). Whether this is misinformation or a reluctance to abandon preconceived beliefs I'll leave you to work out for yourself.
Pro tip: avoid snark unless you are sure of your facts.
Fair enough point, but it's just possible I'm not the only one guilty of the 'pundit's fallacy'. Is there any (non-Cope) explanation for the Left's recent travails given all this overwhelming support among the young people?
Depends what you mean by "left". Centre-left parties currently hold office in most of the English-speaking countries discussed in the OP. Their main difficulty everywhere is that old people (particularly retirees, who can vent their prejudices without consequences) mostly vote for the right.
I'll happily concede your point that centre-left parties currently hold office in much of the Anglosphere. But I'd imagine the likes of Albo, Macron (if he counts) and maybe even the newly beatified Kamala aren't filled with optimism about their parties' future prospects. I presume we are on a unity ticket when it comes to the need to pull back on the economic hyperliberalism, but I'm genuinely interested to know if you think the Left would be well-advised to dial back the social hyperliberalism, especially in regards to openish borders. In this period when a thousand flowers are blooming - not least on Substack – do you believe the Left needs to rethink anything, or just wait patiently till those reactionary Boomers die off?
I now make a point of not reading political journalists. A lot of things are “opinions” including advice you receive from a medical specialist or barrister. The difference is they have a significant body of research behind them. Political journalists such write things based on their own biases and observations. I was reading an opinion piece in the NYT, by that Cohn bloke, and I was thinking what do you to support this? Even opinion polls irk me. What can they tell us other than what a group of people think at a given movement in time? Aren’t they wholly dependent on the question asked? Accordingly I don’t waste my time reading political commentary.
About a third of young French voters (32%) voted for Le Pen's far right National Rally at the last French election but even more voted for the far left. Interestingly, slightly less over 70s (29%) voted for National Rally, who had their biggest support in the 50-69 age group.
As the Muslim population grows in Western Europe, and Islamist terrorism grows along with it, I suspect young indigenous Europeans will increasingly move to the far right and also the far left, as they are already doing in France, which already has a large Muslim minority. The centre left and centre right will be obliterated. Europe has no future as extremism and ethno-religious tensions will eventually result in failed states that look like Lebanon.
I thank my parents for immigrating to Australia, where "Stop the Boats" and better managed multiculturalism means we have a chance to avoid Europe's decline and fall!
The French "far left" in this context is the democratic left: left nationalist, socialists, greens. There's nothing extreme about them
And Australia has more foreign born residents than almost any country in the world, including a large Musiim minority.
Last week I speaking to a cabbie who commented that the problem for Europe is the undocumented immigrants. He stated that obtaining residency status in Australia is very demanding. Make one mistake and you must go through the whole process again. Australia has done well because we can regulate our immigration intake, the result being an intake composed of individuals committed not to just escaping an undesirable situation, but also prepared to change their life to become citizens in a new country.
I don't think the current iteration of National Rally is extreme either, although I'd still call it far right. The most successful part of the left alliance in France's recent election was France Unbowed, which is further left than the Socialist Party, which used to dominate the French left.
I expect economic malaise, nativism and demographic shifts in Europe will push the left and right further apart until true extremists dominate on both sides. I hope I'm wrong but my youthful optimism long ago gave way to middle aged pessimism. Who could ever have predicted Trumpism, or Spud as our most likely next PM?
Re: "... I thank my parents for immigrating to Australia ...", perhaps your encouragement of "Stop the Boats" is too late?
Thanks Gary for your smart alec reply.
Self-evidently, "Stop the boats" is the only reason One Nation doesn't capture 20% of the federal vote and we have less Islamist refugees and their progeny engaging in stabbings, bombings and beheadings than the less fortunate European countries. Speaking of which, from today's German news:
" The man suspected of the stabbing in Solingen has turned himself in, a spokesperson for the Interior Ministry of North Rhine-Westphalia told the news agency DPA ... the man, still covered in blood, approached the officers shortly after 11 p.m ... the suspect is a 26-year-old Syrian, who came to Germany in 2022 and applied for asylum in Bielefeld."
The big winners from this latest terror attack will be the far right AfD and the big losers will be the centre left and centre right, both of whom invited the foxes into hen house.
Apparently it's not a matter of getting more conservative with age, but rather getting more conservative with wealth.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/financial-times-millennials-conservatives-age-b2253902.html
In Australia there's the stereotype of the inner city elite green voter which gives us a whole new axis on which to think about wealth effects (and whether that idea even works when nihilism reaches 95% in the over-50's who make up most of said elite). I suspect that's more an education effect than a wealth one though.
Well blow me down you call Sir drop knee Starmers party left, next you will say that the German Greens are left after Annalenas backfip to be an OTAN Russophobe US neocon supplicant even after Nordstream had a job done on it by her bosses in Washingtons whole of state miieu and whilst her economy implodes due to the loss of cheap energy now replaced by the Empires expensive LNG via tanker. Now think Marles and his subs for war against our major trading partner, could that also be considered left(sic) I wonder. Bring back our social democrat Gough and then you could use the term left with a clear conscience.
Love your work none the less, keep it up.
The post really isn't about the current uselessness of our left/centre-left parties, on which I broadly agree with you
Nothing more on this thread derail, please
Hmmm, I seem to remember a third party doing rather well at the last British election (at least in terms of the popular vote) and many commentators - Left and Right – commenting on its appeal to young people. But that was no doubt just mis/disinformation. (https://www.dazeddigital.com/life-culture/article/63008/1/how-reform-uk-wooed-gen-z-men-britain-nigel-farage-general-election)
Like the rest of the "many commentators" you mention, the author you link to seems to have written the conclusion of the article before looking at the data which shows Reform on a miserable 12 per cent among young men, with the Tories doing even worse (as I already pointed out in the OP). Whether this is misinformation or a reluctance to abandon preconceived beliefs I'll leave you to work out for yourself.
Pro tip: avoid snark unless you are sure of your facts.
Fair enough point, but it's just possible I'm not the only one guilty of the 'pundit's fallacy'. Is there any (non-Cope) explanation for the Left's recent travails given all this overwhelming support among the young people?
Depends what you mean by "left". Centre-left parties currently hold office in most of the English-speaking countries discussed in the OP. Their main difficulty everywhere is that old people (particularly retirees, who can vent their prejudices without consequences) mostly vote for the right.
I'll happily concede your point that centre-left parties currently hold office in much of the Anglosphere. But I'd imagine the likes of Albo, Macron (if he counts) and maybe even the newly beatified Kamala aren't filled with optimism about their parties' future prospects. I presume we are on a unity ticket when it comes to the need to pull back on the economic hyperliberalism, but I'm genuinely interested to know if you think the Left would be well-advised to dial back the social hyperliberalism, especially in regards to openish borders. In this period when a thousand flowers are blooming - not least on Substack – do you believe the Left needs to rethink anything, or just wait patiently till those reactionary Boomers die off?
Does that mean there's hope for the future, John?