I don't see any value in rehashing what the Democrats got wrong. As the flowchart suggests, a better strategy might have staved off disaster for a while, but a country where half the population are willing to vote for a fascist is bound to fail sooner or later.
Reading Noah Smith (NoahOpinion) it seems like progressive Democrats have absolutely trashed blue cities. It might be too early for a thorough and objective analysis of why the Democrats are on the nose with the electorate but it is good to know that there are real problems with Democrat governance that can be fixed fairly easily without becoming regressive https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed
As to the appeal of Trump's neofascism (or outright fascism if you prefer), I believe people are fickle. If Trump enacts terrible policies that make life much harder for the average Joe, he'll lose his following. For that reason, I don't completely despair when Trump names clowns for the cabinet. Maybe a nice big measles pandemic and a collapsing economy is the short term pain America needs to wake the heck up.
The naivety and complacency of the Australian political class has been thrown into sharp relief with the election of Trump.
To think we so recently casually threw our lot in with such an unstable and mendacious regime via AUKUS is beyond the typical Australian governmental incompetence. This is peak farce worthy of Utopia and Fawlty Towers rolled into one giant shitshow.
OK, so Morrison did get his smirking mug on a stage with the US President, plus a grift for life and a wedge against Labor. The Defence crowd got elevated in the national consciousness plus more taxpayer funded jollies to the US and (probably not) some secondhand nuclear submarines. Hapless Albo got to look tough for a few months and keep Marles and his Victorian faction happy.
Meanwhile, the poor old taxpayer has to bail out the recurring stupidity of our political class for a crude protection racket that signs away our sovereignty and sets us on collision course with our largest trading partner.
I agree with your assessment that we need to immediately, but quietly disengage from AUKUS and adopt a neutral defence posture. The more likely outcome is our idiotic ruling class will double-down in order to look tough, perceiving that the lesson from the US is that the strongman prevails. Acquiescence once again confused with independence and weakness masquerading as strength.
Why do you think Labour has not gone after AUKUS, John? After the election, attacking AUKUS seemed like a golden opportunity to both leave Australia in a stronger diplomatic position this century, as well as associate an unpopular Coalition government with wasteful ineffective spending. Maybe I'm in an ideological bubble, but it seems like such a wasted opportunity!
Thanks John. I agree with a heavy heart your summations about the fate of the USA whilst Mr Trump and his ilk are in power. I am a fan of Sam’s ‘Echidna Strategy.’ Just 2 months ago, after listening to an Australia Institute talk on foreign policy and listening to some talks by John Mearsheimer. Australia does need independence from the USA and needs to play foreign policy in a fashion similar to India.
I have said here recently that incompetence will keep a Trump dictatorship from being effective, but on reflection, a lot less competence is needed when you don't have have to consider competing views and administrative rules ensuring open and accountable government. With the majority of the population justifiably cynical of these rules, having long since stopped benefiting from them in any real sense, most will go along with the tearing down of the institutions of democracy. And most will want them back when they find that the new order is even worse.
There are enough competent people joining Trump now to make him properly dangerous. The demand for recess appointments was one that hadn't occurred to me, for example, but someone in Trump's circle saw the benefits.
The reportage was that Musk was in the meeting which suggested that the prospective Senate leaders be pressured to support recess appointments. Musk is playing a key role at present, so it's important to understand his motivations. He seems friendly towards Australia which might give us leverage.
I think you're too pessimistic John about the speed at which the US will become more authoritarian, and the tactics that will be used. Eg I don't think execution will be used, though imprisonment will be. (I would try and pause the extradition treaty between the US and Australia during the lame duck period, so as to protect us from US extra judicial reach).
I find Robert Reich's commentary on where the US will probably go very informative.
The Federal system in the US will slow the authoritarian spread, as the States have a lot of power.
And I suspect Trump doesn't actually want a third term, so he is likely to push for Don Trump jnr as the presidential candidate, which will pit him against Vance. And the billionaires will prefer Vance to Jnr, so this will lead to lots of conflict.
Also the filibuster will slow things down in the Senate, though I think you're right John there will be no significant change to the Cabinet nominees.Though I'd be surprised if Gabbard is confirmed as DNI, and I think RFKJr may end up with Health alone with Human services going to someone else.
Still all in all it will be a terrifying time for Americans, and we will see how much we can insulate ourselves from the troubles.
I'm often quite optimistic generally, but I wonder if it's possible to be too pessimistic about Trump? Caroline Cadwalladr is one of many who've said (paraphrasing) we need to 'take Trump at his word'. Perhaps we should expect the worst and then be pleasantly surprised if anything less eventuates?
I agree and appreciate the clarity of your thoughts as always. My only thought is that the USA is going to quickly stop functioning as a single country as parts of it won’t stomach the orders coming from Washington. We will see why consensus building was so important in keeping a federated democracy together. The other way is through force. On the other hand I have been pleasantly surprised by the way that the USA seems to have a deep reserve of hope and optimism which might yet ride it through.
LOL, no. But, e.g., you know a lot about how the federal government works, and are aware how much people depend on it for many aspects of their lives, and you also know how oligarchies work—you’ll be contemplating a lot of looming disasters in the distance. Nobody could consider them all.
And awareness of the various sweeping plans to cause pain to large swathes of our society can’t be considered all at once either. There are simply too many plans of this nature.
I agree, but I hope to avoid being overwhelmed by it.
Perhaps imagining America as a giant whole too big to be absorbed by anyone might help? 'Cos if if everyone does their bit, then collectively we can overcome.
So if we can absorb Hawaii, Canada can absorb California, Mexico can absorb New Mexico, Greenland can absorb New York State, and the Atlantic Ocean can absorb Florida. By then the problem is almost completely solved!
A potential source of 'hope', though I hate to sayit, may be that the super rich will see mass deportations as an intolerable loss of cheap labour and downward wage pressure, that the end of the illusion free speach and the silencing of the liberal political class will mean that the dispossessed can no longer be distracted from wealth inequality with divide-and-conquer culture wars (Don't get me wrong, I'm as woke as a trans, vegan, mixed race, first nation, peacenick femenist, eco worrier, but I am furious that the debate has hijacked to serve extreme wealth), and that economic disruption and downturn will represent an unacceptable loss of revenue and power.
The uber rich are much more entrenched in the formal and informal power structures of the USA than the russian Oligarchs were at the start of Putins' reign so they might be harder to remove or bring into line..
On the other hand, unless they are explicitly targeted, extreme wealth often endures most political upheavals with wealth held offshore, earning capacity largely decoupled from the real economy, and a willingness to though each other to the wolves when neccissary.
A defining feature of economic elites throughout history is to adapt to whatever political situation presents itself. Following their usual playbook the current American Oligopoly will, for example, stymie deportations and even anti migration policies by allowing a show of some well publicised deportations while suppressing the amount of ongoing immigration.
While agree that putting some distance between ourselves and the US would be a welcome sign of national maturity, I don't think the US must necessarily proceed to become a dynastic dictatorship (although if it was, now is the time).
The interplay of legal and governmental institutions is too complicated for a single entity to take over and control. Plus it's still too early to tell. Trump's last reign was pathetic in what it achieved, OK the agenda was less clear but even with a more robust supporting framework you are still saddled with a meddlesome and erratic CE who can quickly take a dislike to someone he perceives as having got too big for their boots (i.e. by having ideas or deciding things). This makes it hard to get anything done as 'success' will probably bring exile. But, there is still cause for great concern...
These are all things he repeatedly says he wants to and is going to do. Whether he and his merry band are capable, and co-operation will be as smooth as they imagine, are different questions. Right now in the US there is a widespread sense that no one knows what to do to "resist". A few govvenors have made loud statements about preperations, but since its not on TV no one knows what that looks like. These's a very wide interest in fighting back, whatever that looks like. Its gonna be chaotic at best. These are the times that try men's souls, again.
Regrettably, damage to the integrity of key institutions and governance processes mean that there is little to impede this determined March of Folly. I both thank you and curse you for your clarity John.
Fundamentally, Trump is a problem because of the whole-hearted support (and complete submission) of the Republican party. The "government processes" are norms and internal rules ignored by the Republican party tto enable Trump. The 2 impeachments and Emoluments Clause were DOA solely because of unwavering support of Trump by the party. You could argue the institution of the Supreme Court was damaged, but that's the result of self-inflicted wounds caused by a 30-year long Federalist Society project and the dreams of one Lenoard Leo.
Our institutions ans processes were never conceived of seeing a full-frontal assualt from an entire political party and its billionaire enablers. Those elites and funders were assumed to have a self-interest in perpetuating the system that made them wealthy and elite. Turns out, not so much.
(Reposting the same bet from another Substack comment for visibility, and clarifying the conditions now that I’ve seen your probabilities chart)
Would you like to bet 25,000 euros, 40,000 Australian dollars or 250 grams of gold on fair Presidential elections still happening in 2028 and the rightful winner being sworn in on January 20th, 2029? If I’m reading your chart correctly you’re assigning a mere 12.5% to democracy surviving but I’m happy to bet at an implied probability of 25% so that the bet has a positive expected payout from your perspective, meaning I’ll have to pay 8,325 euros if I lose.
Happy to wire the money to a reputable Australian law firm as a deposit. We can split the legal fees at 50:50 initially but have the loser pay back the winner, meaning the deposit will have to include the initial bet size + 50% of the legal fees.
P.S. the bet offer applies to anyone else too at the same implied odds. We can set up the deposit in the EU, Australia, Singapore or New Zealand.
The Democrats seem to love kicking themselves in the face. Right when reasonable people have a sensible fear that Trump will upend democracy, corrupt Democrat controlled election boards in Pennsylvania have unilaterally decided to ignore court rulings and count illegal votes. This criminal and doomed to fail act has just handed the MAGA crowd a great propaganda tool that they will exploit for the 4 years. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/bucks-county-commissioners-meeting-republican-activists-diane-ellis-marseglia-20241120.html
Trump says he is going to embark on mass deportation. He is clearly a racist and a fascist. Americans deserve Trump. The US has proven yet again to be an existential threat to humanity ... the US has been the architect of the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The US military industrial complex is spreading empire throughout West Asia regardless of which party controls the Executive or the congress. Remember congress gave Netanyahu a standing ovation when he declared the genocide.
The generals who Trump appointed to his cabinet- James Mattis, Mark Milley and John Kelly- are all on the record expressing their disgust at Trump. If media reports are correct, sometimes they just refused to follow Trump's insane orders. Hopefully the military will stand solid against Trump if he tries to do anything crazy. This may require open defiance, some of it unconstitutional, but it may be needed to save the constitution from amoral and perverted president. The media reports on the militaries disdain for Trump is a reason for hope: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-10-23/the-high-profile-military-leaders-who-have-come-out-against-donald-trump
That's true. I should have made myself clearer- what I had in mind was high ranking serving officers defying Trump and if necessary Hegseth and the rest of the Trump cabinet. I'm hoping that the top brass have been listening to Mattis, Milley and Kelly and have talked among themselves about the lines they will not cross.
I don't see any value in rehashing what the Democrats got wrong. As the flowchart suggests, a better strategy might have staved off disaster for a while, but a country where half the population are willing to vote for a fascist is bound to fail sooner or later.
Reading Noah Smith (NoahOpinion) it seems like progressive Democrats have absolutely trashed blue cities. It might be too early for a thorough and objective analysis of why the Democrats are on the nose with the electorate but it is good to know that there are real problems with Democrat governance that can be fixed fairly easily without becoming regressive https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-blue-cities-must-be-fixed
As to the appeal of Trump's neofascism (or outright fascism if you prefer), I believe people are fickle. If Trump enacts terrible policies that make life much harder for the average Joe, he'll lose his following. For that reason, I don't completely despair when Trump names clowns for the cabinet. Maybe a nice big measles pandemic and a collapsing economy is the short term pain America needs to wake the heck up.
The naivety and complacency of the Australian political class has been thrown into sharp relief with the election of Trump.
To think we so recently casually threw our lot in with such an unstable and mendacious regime via AUKUS is beyond the typical Australian governmental incompetence. This is peak farce worthy of Utopia and Fawlty Towers rolled into one giant shitshow.
OK, so Morrison did get his smirking mug on a stage with the US President, plus a grift for life and a wedge against Labor. The Defence crowd got elevated in the national consciousness plus more taxpayer funded jollies to the US and (probably not) some secondhand nuclear submarines. Hapless Albo got to look tough for a few months and keep Marles and his Victorian faction happy.
Meanwhile, the poor old taxpayer has to bail out the recurring stupidity of our political class for a crude protection racket that signs away our sovereignty and sets us on collision course with our largest trading partner.
I agree with your assessment that we need to immediately, but quietly disengage from AUKUS and adopt a neutral defence posture. The more likely outcome is our idiotic ruling class will double-down in order to look tough, perceiving that the lesson from the US is that the strongman prevails. Acquiescence once again confused with independence and weakness masquerading as strength.
Well said!
Why do you think Labour has not gone after AUKUS, John? After the election, attacking AUKUS seemed like a golden opportunity to both leave Australia in a stronger diplomatic position this century, as well as associate an unpopular Coalition government with wasteful ineffective spending. Maybe I'm in an ideological bubble, but it seems like such a wasted opportunity!
Thanks John. I agree with a heavy heart your summations about the fate of the USA whilst Mr Trump and his ilk are in power. I am a fan of Sam’s ‘Echidna Strategy.’ Just 2 months ago, after listening to an Australia Institute talk on foreign policy and listening to some talks by John Mearsheimer. Australia does need independence from the USA and needs to play foreign policy in a fashion similar to India.
I have said here recently that incompetence will keep a Trump dictatorship from being effective, but on reflection, a lot less competence is needed when you don't have have to consider competing views and administrative rules ensuring open and accountable government. With the majority of the population justifiably cynical of these rules, having long since stopped benefiting from them in any real sense, most will go along with the tearing down of the institutions of democracy. And most will want them back when they find that the new order is even worse.
There are enough competent people joining Trump now to make him properly dangerous. The demand for recess appointments was one that hadn't occurred to me, for example, but someone in Trump's circle saw the benefits.
The reportage was that Musk was in the meeting which suggested that the prospective Senate leaders be pressured to support recess appointments. Musk is playing a key role at present, so it's important to understand his motivations. He seems friendly towards Australia which might give us leverage.
I think you're too pessimistic John about the speed at which the US will become more authoritarian, and the tactics that will be used. Eg I don't think execution will be used, though imprisonment will be. (I would try and pause the extradition treaty between the US and Australia during the lame duck period, so as to protect us from US extra judicial reach).
I find Robert Reich's commentary on where the US will probably go very informative.
The Federal system in the US will slow the authoritarian spread, as the States have a lot of power.
And I suspect Trump doesn't actually want a third term, so he is likely to push for Don Trump jnr as the presidential candidate, which will pit him against Vance. And the billionaires will prefer Vance to Jnr, so this will lead to lots of conflict.
Also the filibuster will slow things down in the Senate, though I think you're right John there will be no significant change to the Cabinet nominees.Though I'd be surprised if Gabbard is confirmed as DNI, and I think RFKJr may end up with Health alone with Human services going to someone else.
Still all in all it will be a terrifying time for Americans, and we will see how much we can insulate ourselves from the troubles.
I'm often quite optimistic generally, but I wonder if it's possible to be too pessimistic about Trump? Caroline Cadwalladr is one of many who've said (paraphrasing) we need to 'take Trump at his word'. Perhaps we should expect the worst and then be pleasantly surprised if anything less eventuates?
I agree and appreciate the clarity of your thoughts as always. My only thought is that the USA is going to quickly stop functioning as a single country as parts of it won’t stomach the orders coming from Washington. We will see why consensus building was so important in keeping a federated democracy together. The other way is through force. On the other hand I have been pleasantly surprised by the way that the USA seems to have a deep reserve of hope and optimism which might yet ride it through.
I suspect it’s too hard to face all at once. Every day there will be a small piece that we absorb. Nobody can swallow it whole.
What is a small enough piece for us to absorb? Hawaii?
LOL, no. But, e.g., you know a lot about how the federal government works, and are aware how much people depend on it for many aspects of their lives, and you also know how oligarchies work—you’ll be contemplating a lot of looming disasters in the distance. Nobody could consider them all.
And awareness of the various sweeping plans to cause pain to large swathes of our society can’t be considered all at once either. There are simply too many plans of this nature.
I agree, but I hope to avoid being overwhelmed by it.
Perhaps imagining America as a giant whole too big to be absorbed by anyone might help? 'Cos if if everyone does their bit, then collectively we can overcome.
So if we can absorb Hawaii, Canada can absorb California, Mexico can absorb New Mexico, Greenland can absorb New York State, and the Atlantic Ocean can absorb Florida. By then the problem is almost completely solved!
A potential source of 'hope', though I hate to sayit, may be that the super rich will see mass deportations as an intolerable loss of cheap labour and downward wage pressure, that the end of the illusion free speach and the silencing of the liberal political class will mean that the dispossessed can no longer be distracted from wealth inequality with divide-and-conquer culture wars (Don't get me wrong, I'm as woke as a trans, vegan, mixed race, first nation, peacenick femenist, eco worrier, but I am furious that the debate has hijacked to serve extreme wealth), and that economic disruption and downturn will represent an unacceptable loss of revenue and power.
The uber rich are much more entrenched in the formal and informal power structures of the USA than the russian Oligarchs were at the start of Putins' reign so they might be harder to remove or bring into line..
On the other hand, unless they are explicitly targeted, extreme wealth often endures most political upheavals with wealth held offshore, earning capacity largely decoupled from the real economy, and a willingness to though each other to the wolves when neccissary.
A defining feature of economic elites throughout history is to adapt to whatever political situation presents itself. Following their usual playbook the current American Oligopoly will, for example, stymie deportations and even anti migration policies by allowing a show of some well publicised deportations while suppressing the amount of ongoing immigration.
While agree that putting some distance between ourselves and the US would be a welcome sign of national maturity, I don't think the US must necessarily proceed to become a dynastic dictatorship (although if it was, now is the time).
The interplay of legal and governmental institutions is too complicated for a single entity to take over and control. Plus it's still too early to tell. Trump's last reign was pathetic in what it achieved, OK the agenda was less clear but even with a more robust supporting framework you are still saddled with a meddlesome and erratic CE who can quickly take a dislike to someone he perceives as having got too big for their boots (i.e. by having ideas or deciding things). This makes it hard to get anything done as 'success' will probably bring exile. But, there is still cause for great concern...
These are all things he repeatedly says he wants to and is going to do. Whether he and his merry band are capable, and co-operation will be as smooth as they imagine, are different questions. Right now in the US there is a widespread sense that no one knows what to do to "resist". A few govvenors have made loud statements about preperations, but since its not on TV no one knows what that looks like. These's a very wide interest in fighting back, whatever that looks like. Its gonna be chaotic at best. These are the times that try men's souls, again.
Regrettably, damage to the integrity of key institutions and governance processes mean that there is little to impede this determined March of Folly. I both thank you and curse you for your clarity John.
Fundamentally, Trump is a problem because of the whole-hearted support (and complete submission) of the Republican party. The "government processes" are norms and internal rules ignored by the Republican party tto enable Trump. The 2 impeachments and Emoluments Clause were DOA solely because of unwavering support of Trump by the party. You could argue the institution of the Supreme Court was damaged, but that's the result of self-inflicted wounds caused by a 30-year long Federalist Society project and the dreams of one Lenoard Leo.
Our institutions ans processes were never conceived of seeing a full-frontal assualt from an entire political party and its billionaire enablers. Those elites and funders were assumed to have a self-interest in perpetuating the system that made them wealthy and elite. Turns out, not so much.
(Reposting the same bet from another Substack comment for visibility, and clarifying the conditions now that I’ve seen your probabilities chart)
Would you like to bet 25,000 euros, 40,000 Australian dollars or 250 grams of gold on fair Presidential elections still happening in 2028 and the rightful winner being sworn in on January 20th, 2029? If I’m reading your chart correctly you’re assigning a mere 12.5% to democracy surviving but I’m happy to bet at an implied probability of 25% so that the bet has a positive expected payout from your perspective, meaning I’ll have to pay 8,325 euros if I lose.
Happy to wire the money to a reputable Australian law firm as a deposit. We can split the legal fees at 50:50 initially but have the loser pay back the winner, meaning the deposit will have to include the initial bet size + 50% of the legal fees.
P.S. the bet offer applies to anyone else too at the same implied odds. We can set up the deposit in the EU, Australia, Singapore or New Zealand.
I don't bet on events I don't want to happen.
I’m sorry but I think the real answer is that you don’t actually believe these are the true odds. If you did, you’d take the free money.
I also think my comment will get deleted and I’ll likely be banned too. But that’s okay.
Just go away
I agree John. Nikita's smarmy immature smart alec comments should be deleted.
The Democrats seem to love kicking themselves in the face. Right when reasonable people have a sensible fear that Trump will upend democracy, corrupt Democrat controlled election boards in Pennsylvania have unilaterally decided to ignore court rulings and count illegal votes. This criminal and doomed to fail act has just handed the MAGA crowd a great propaganda tool that they will exploit for the 4 years. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/bucks-county-commissioners-meeting-republican-activists-diane-ellis-marseglia-20241120.html
Trump says he is going to embark on mass deportation. He is clearly a racist and a fascist. Americans deserve Trump. The US has proven yet again to be an existential threat to humanity ... the US has been the architect of the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The US military industrial complex is spreading empire throughout West Asia regardless of which party controls the Executive or the congress. Remember congress gave Netanyahu a standing ovation when he declared the genocide.
The generals who Trump appointed to his cabinet- James Mattis, Mark Milley and John Kelly- are all on the record expressing their disgust at Trump. If media reports are correct, sometimes they just refused to follow Trump's insane orders. Hopefully the military will stand solid against Trump if he tries to do anything crazy. This may require open defiance, some of it unconstitutional, but it may be needed to save the constitution from amoral and perverted president. The media reports on the militaries disdain for Trump is a reason for hope: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-10-23/the-high-profile-military-leaders-who-have-come-out-against-donald-trump
Sadly, not much hope. Trump's Defense Secretary, Hegseth has been picked with the explicit goal of purging disloyal generals.
That's true. I should have made myself clearer- what I had in mind was high ranking serving officers defying Trump and if necessary Hegseth and the rest of the Trump cabinet. I'm hoping that the top brass have been listening to Mattis, Milley and Kelly and have talked among themselves about the lines they will not cross.