"Although Scott Morrison is often derided as a fool, his tax reform strategy was a political masterstroke. The benefits to low- and middle-income earners in stages one and two locked Labor into supporting the entire package."
Morrison's strategy was only a masterstroke because he held an accurately low opinion of his opponents. A competent Labor opposition would have held their ground on the tax cuts and when the dust had settled, the Coalition would still have needed to deliver tax cuts. That senate vote on the tax cuts occurred in July 2019, just a couple of months after an election. The Coalition would have had another two and a half years of people "paying too much tax" while they did nothing, harped on about boring politics, reintroduced an alternative scheme or all of the above. But Labor had their confidence shattered by the election defeat and were a party divided, so they retreated into their standard defensive posture (at least this century) of saying whatever they think people want to hear and doing nothing different from the Coalition.
It's a disgrace they've broken this promise, and Albanese's word is worth nothing now; it's just less of a disgrace than if they'd kept the Stage 3 cuts.
"Without a new tax policy, the question isn’t whether Labor will retain (let alone expand) its majority but whether it will get a second term at all."
I don't always agree with your politics, John, but I must say this is an insightful observation - I wonder if Labor or the Treasury boffins saw it and took it up. The Albanese/Chalmers political calculus is that the tide was shifting against Labor because of cost of living issues. Solution: Ditch a firmly held commitment ("my word is my bond") to support the Stage 3 tax cuts, give that the lot hit (about 2 million voters) only half the nominal tax deductions they were expecting and to then give the proceeds in terms of extra tax cuts to low and middle income earners (nearly 12 million voters). The calculation: The votes gained among the 12 million through their increased after-tax incomes will outweigh the anger of the smaller group of high income tax payers plus the increased general contempt that people feel for lying politicians. Moreover, the resulting move beautifully wedges the LNP - are you going to reverse this piece of deception by increasing the tax take from the 12 million. It is masterful "soak the rich" politics and has a rich traditionalist Labor flavor to it. Certainly back to Labor politics prior to Hawke and Keating.
The deception also enticingly conceals bracket creep issues that continue to push more aspirational Australians into top tax brackets even though their real incomes have not increased. Some of the 12 million celebrants may come to regret Albanese's "generosity" but that will mostly come well after the next election when much will hopefully be forgotten
I'll still be switching from Labor to the Greens at the next federal election. If enough of us do that, Labor will hopefully get the message and tack to the left.
All governments have mid-term crisis periods. The ALP government stopped listening to the voters and had paid the price. Once lost, voter support is hard to win back. It will now take a monumental stuff up by the LNP leadership for the ALP to avoid defeat at the next election. Luckily for the ALP, the Opposition are showing signs of arrogance. They actually think middle income earners care about broken election promises. That is good for the ALP. The longer the LNP party room thinks they lost the last election simply on the tax promises of the ALP, the easier it will be for the ALP tortoise to sneak past the LNP rabbit. Voters have no long term memory unless it’s a painful one. The majority of voters will not care about promises made back in 2022. They will only care about how they are coping, or not coping, with issues relevant to 2024. The federal election for that year is there to be lost. Most changes of government occur this way. But it is a two horse race. The only chance the ALP has is if the LNO jockey, Peter Dutton, lets his arrogance betray his common sense. The electorate will place their bets, election touters will have their say, but it is the actions of the two jockeys that will decide the winner. Let’s pray that the LNP campaign will be as bad as it was in 2022. Because if it is not, there will be a change of government.
PJQ - I think I remember you writing you had given up on Labor maybe in 2022 around the election time or saying you weren't voting for Labor or advising against it? And in this column you basically are confirming your extreme disappointment of Labor or is it just Labor's tactics? There just seems to be so much time being wasted on criticising Labor and critiquing their policies and actions by a lot of people. Wouldn't intellectual effort be better spent on looking for better ways to govern the country? Is it not obvious that Labor is subservient to... wait for it.... Murdoch Media and I know you are not convinced by their influence, but plenty of other commentators of repute conclude Labor is cowed by NewsCorp. Is this a democracy? Is the 2party system the best for the nation? Besides it's a duopoly - see TAI article on political party donations & how Lib/Labor will collude to shut out Teals/Indies etc. Gee whiz why can't we look to a minority Labor as a good thing and devise ways to making that a reality in 2025. Cheers
"Although Scott Morrison is often derided as a fool, his tax reform strategy was a political masterstroke. The benefits to low- and middle-income earners in stages one and two locked Labor into supporting the entire package."
Morrison's strategy was only a masterstroke because he held an accurately low opinion of his opponents. A competent Labor opposition would have held their ground on the tax cuts and when the dust had settled, the Coalition would still have needed to deliver tax cuts. That senate vote on the tax cuts occurred in July 2019, just a couple of months after an election. The Coalition would have had another two and a half years of people "paying too much tax" while they did nothing, harped on about boring politics, reintroduced an alternative scheme or all of the above. But Labor had their confidence shattered by the election defeat and were a party divided, so they retreated into their standard defensive posture (at least this century) of saying whatever they think people want to hear and doing nothing different from the Coalition.
It's a disgrace they've broken this promise, and Albanese's word is worth nothing now; it's just less of a disgrace than if they'd kept the Stage 3 cuts.
"Without a new tax policy, the question isn’t whether Labor will retain (let alone expand) its majority but whether it will get a second term at all."
I don't always agree with your politics, John, but I must say this is an insightful observation - I wonder if Labor or the Treasury boffins saw it and took it up. The Albanese/Chalmers political calculus is that the tide was shifting against Labor because of cost of living issues. Solution: Ditch a firmly held commitment ("my word is my bond") to support the Stage 3 tax cuts, give that the lot hit (about 2 million voters) only half the nominal tax deductions they were expecting and to then give the proceeds in terms of extra tax cuts to low and middle income earners (nearly 12 million voters). The calculation: The votes gained among the 12 million through their increased after-tax incomes will outweigh the anger of the smaller group of high income tax payers plus the increased general contempt that people feel for lying politicians. Moreover, the resulting move beautifully wedges the LNP - are you going to reverse this piece of deception by increasing the tax take from the 12 million. It is masterful "soak the rich" politics and has a rich traditionalist Labor flavor to it. Certainly back to Labor politics prior to Hawke and Keating.
The deception also enticingly conceals bracket creep issues that continue to push more aspirational Australians into top tax brackets even though their real incomes have not increased. Some of the 12 million celebrants may come to regret Albanese's "generosity" but that will mostly come well after the next election when much will hopefully be forgotten
I'll still be switching from Labor to the Greens at the next federal election. If enough of us do that, Labor will hopefully get the message and tack to the left.
All governments have mid-term crisis periods. The ALP government stopped listening to the voters and had paid the price. Once lost, voter support is hard to win back. It will now take a monumental stuff up by the LNP leadership for the ALP to avoid defeat at the next election. Luckily for the ALP, the Opposition are showing signs of arrogance. They actually think middle income earners care about broken election promises. That is good for the ALP. The longer the LNP party room thinks they lost the last election simply on the tax promises of the ALP, the easier it will be for the ALP tortoise to sneak past the LNP rabbit. Voters have no long term memory unless it’s a painful one. The majority of voters will not care about promises made back in 2022. They will only care about how they are coping, or not coping, with issues relevant to 2024. The federal election for that year is there to be lost. Most changes of government occur this way. But it is a two horse race. The only chance the ALP has is if the LNO jockey, Peter Dutton, lets his arrogance betray his common sense. The electorate will place their bets, election touters will have their say, but it is the actions of the two jockeys that will decide the winner. Let’s pray that the LNP campaign will be as bad as it was in 2022. Because if it is not, there will be a change of government.
So, is your cheering because Morrison is leaving parliament, or because the government has made an improved decision on tax policy?
PJQ - I think I remember you writing you had given up on Labor maybe in 2022 around the election time or saying you weren't voting for Labor or advising against it? And in this column you basically are confirming your extreme disappointment of Labor or is it just Labor's tactics? There just seems to be so much time being wasted on criticising Labor and critiquing their policies and actions by a lot of people. Wouldn't intellectual effort be better spent on looking for better ways to govern the country? Is it not obvious that Labor is subservient to... wait for it.... Murdoch Media and I know you are not convinced by their influence, but plenty of other commentators of repute conclude Labor is cowed by NewsCorp. Is this a democracy? Is the 2party system the best for the nation? Besides it's a duopoly - see TAI article on political party donations & how Lib/Labor will collude to shut out Teals/Indies etc. Gee whiz why can't we look to a minority Labor as a good thing and devise ways to making that a reality in 2025. Cheers