(Flailing about looking for a silver lining here..) The good news is that Trump’s approval rating is only about 42%, markedly below that of all other recent Presidents at the same points in the election cycle, trending down, and now in negative territory. This bridegroom is not enjoying a star-struck honeymoon. The bad news is that Trump’s approval rating is still as high as about 42%, when his malevolent unfitness has been on prominent display every day of his term of abuse of office. Tragically, large parts of his agenda of racism, corruption, vengefulness, corruption, ignorance, xenophobia, isolationism, arrogance, wanton cruelty and (I insist) idolatry are actually welcomed by a large minority of the American people- but not everything.
His Achilles’ heel is the economy. Neo– and paleo-liberals alike reject Trump’s nonsensical tariff policy, too much of a revolution against long-received ideas. Main Street is battening down the hatches and rightly fears the coming recession, or worse. Wall Street is split. Rosy-spectacled bulls still think the fascism is a performance for the rubes, and that conventional plutocracy will resume Any Day Now, while merely myopic bears dimly perceive that the Cauliflower Trust has lost control of its puppet Arturo Ui and now dances to his strings. Contrast the calibre of the conservative technocrats Hitler could rely on in the 1930s - Schacht, von Seekt - with hapless bumblers like Bessent, Hesgeth, and Rubio, and lunatics like Navarro and Musk. The only hope left for democracy is that the economic failure will advance faster than the undermining of institutions.
In he summer of 1941 the old anti-Boshevik warrior Winston Churchill did not hesitate to offer Stalin’s Soviet Union a firm alliance against the greater and more immediate evil of Nazi Germany. In this spirit we really have to back China to win the trade war. Paul Krugman’s column today on China’s ban on the export of essential rare metals to the USA is thus cheering:
“Even relatively sophisticated Trumpers like Bessent are still thinking in terms of Chinese access to the markets of the United States and our imagined trade war allies, when the real issue now is whether China can strangle the U.S. economy by disrupting our supply chains.“ https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-trump-will-lose-his-trade-war
Trump grovels to Put , a better performer of theatrical machismo. Perhaps Trump is about to find out who the real hard man is, and what it means to kowtow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowtow
I simply do not understand why the armed forces wouldn’t move against given the constitutionality of his actions. Secondly, in a country notorious for knocking off presidents surely it can’t be long until another shooter appears and this time they don’t miss.
The silver lining in the Trumpian mess is the prospects for the rest of the world (ROW). Trump has implemented his plans in such a ham fisted way that the ROW has almost no choice but to manage international relations without the US. That gives us lots of really good options if we're prepared to seize the opportunity. We will truly have a multipolar world. Multipolar has its own challenges as often decision making is slow. But it can be better than being pushed around by the US empire.
There is the danger that China will replace the US as the hegemonic power. But that would be difficult for China to pull off, especially as at present it will take a lot of effort by China to manage the US withdrawal. And China is not trusted by most so it's hard to be hegemonic in this diverse world without trust. There is a huge opportunity for the Europeans, Australia, NZ, Japan, India, Brazil, Korea, Canada etc to construct a new more equitable international architecture in cooperation with China.
So we truly do live in interesting times. The transition may be difficult but the possible new futures are extraordinary.
Other than that, Mrs. Kennedy, how did you enjoy your trip to Dallas?
We just might tiptoe right to the precipice and draw back, but that won't "save democracy" in the sense of restoring the status quo ante. What we thought of as the unbreakable foundations are as shattered as if they slid down the hill in a landslide.
The institutions of civil society are much stronger in the US than in the other recently autocratic-after-an-democratic-election states (eg Hungary, Turkiye, Russia, Venezuela), and they and the federated nature of the country may in the end stymy these criminal kleptocrats, but I think it's a certainty that a massive violence is baked in now, and this northern summer will be shocking. There's no way the US gets out of this, if it does, without huge upheaval and destruction of lives. Expect a rapid decline from a scarcely believable 42% approval rating. Also, I think everything Trump does can be seen through two related factors - an increasing senility and an overwhelming desire to be groveled to. Everything around him pitches to those factors, and it will only get worse. When he goes (I don't care how), the scramble for riches will be acute, and extremely dangerous.
The Diadochi who fought over the succession to Alexander the Great - Ptolemy, Antigonus, Cassander, and Seleucus - were capable and experienced generals, hand-picked by Alexander, who established dynasties lasting centuries. Who does Trump have in his inner circle with significant experience managing a large organisation? Rubio has been a mediocre Governor of Florida. Musk has built three large companies, but has trashed two of them out of vanity. Wright is an actual businessman, but outside the inner circle. The rest are lightweights (Bessent, Hegseth), and/or fanatics (Vought. Kennedy, Miller), and/or flacks (Vance, Gabbard). After the failed assassination attempt on Hitler in 1944, Goebbels -Gauleiter of Berlin, a man without any military experience - rapidly assembled a small force of loyal troops in Berlin and snuffed out the generals' conspiracy with decisive and ruthless action.. Can you see anyone in the Trump circle capable of doing this?
Without wanting to sound too cold blooded, I find it interesting how important timing is in all this. In a democracy, timing matters, but it's not crucial because things are - by and large, more or less - reversible. But when things become irreversible, you're in the realm of History with a capital H.
If your predictions are correct, there are Republican representatives who, with six month foresight, would vote against Trump. There are probably even members of the administration who in a year's time will wish they acted differently. But we're in a chain where the Democrats realised too late Biden was unelectable, so they never got to test Harris in a primary, etc. etc. It reads like a high school modern history textbook.
This was predicted when Agenda 2025s plans were announced if Trump was elected, they learnt from their mistakes last time.
Now Europe wants to bankrupt itself so sell its soul to the MIC. Look at the share prices soar of the producers of death whilst pensions are cut and laid back 12 years in one hit from. 55 to 67 for Belgium government workers whilst they give promise to give one billion per year to the Ukie hohols. Germany the same.
We have given our half a billion donation for the never to arrive sub.
Great followup to your original post. One question: in the second to last paragraph did you mean you **cannot** see this happening? The rest of the 'graph seems to say why you ""can"". Yesterday's supreme court may suggest some push back on that front but the acquiesence and complicity of the MAGA (formerly Republican) members of Congress who with only token exceptions are 99.9% on board.
It will be difficult for the Trumpists to control the electoral machinery in Democratic states. But that may only slow them down as they can use the full power of the State and Justice department against Democrat candidates in Republican seats.
The economic collapse due to chaotic tariff policy may be moderated if the Republicans in Congress decide in desperation to take control of tariff policy, but that outcome may substantially reduce the anger against Congressional Republicans, which could reduce the electoral backlash.
So there are factors that could go against the Trumpists, but it's not looking promising.
One factor that gives me hope is the extreme displays of obsequiousness by the Trump cabinet towards Trump. I know this was done to some extent during Trump's first term, but the displays have become so extreme now that I think it could have some impact on Republicans and Independents.
(Flailing about looking for a silver lining here..) The good news is that Trump’s approval rating is only about 42%, markedly below that of all other recent Presidents at the same points in the election cycle, trending down, and now in negative territory. This bridegroom is not enjoying a star-struck honeymoon. The bad news is that Trump’s approval rating is still as high as about 42%, when his malevolent unfitness has been on prominent display every day of his term of abuse of office. Tragically, large parts of his agenda of racism, corruption, vengefulness, corruption, ignorance, xenophobia, isolationism, arrogance, wanton cruelty and (I insist) idolatry are actually welcomed by a large minority of the American people- but not everything.
His Achilles’ heel is the economy. Neo– and paleo-liberals alike reject Trump’s nonsensical tariff policy, too much of a revolution against long-received ideas. Main Street is battening down the hatches and rightly fears the coming recession, or worse. Wall Street is split. Rosy-spectacled bulls still think the fascism is a performance for the rubes, and that conventional plutocracy will resume Any Day Now, while merely myopic bears dimly perceive that the Cauliflower Trust has lost control of its puppet Arturo Ui and now dances to his strings. Contrast the calibre of the conservative technocrats Hitler could rely on in the 1930s - Schacht, von Seekt - with hapless bumblers like Bessent, Hesgeth, and Rubio, and lunatics like Navarro and Musk. The only hope left for democracy is that the economic failure will advance faster than the undermining of institutions.
In he summer of 1941 the old anti-Boshevik warrior Winston Churchill did not hesitate to offer Stalin’s Soviet Union a firm alliance against the greater and more immediate evil of Nazi Germany. In this spirit we really have to back China to win the trade war. Paul Krugman’s column today on China’s ban on the export of essential rare metals to the USA is thus cheering:
“Even relatively sophisticated Trumpers like Bessent are still thinking in terms of Chinese access to the markets of the United States and our imagined trade war allies, when the real issue now is whether China can strangle the U.S. economy by disrupting our supply chains.“ https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/why-trump-will-lose-his-trade-war
Trump grovels to Put , a better performer of theatrical machismo. Perhaps Trump is about to find out who the real hard man is, and what it means to kowtow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kowtow
I simply do not understand why the armed forces wouldn’t move against given the constitutionality of his actions. Secondly, in a country notorious for knocking off presidents surely it can’t be long until another shooter appears and this time they don’t miss.
One lives in hope.
The silver lining in the Trumpian mess is the prospects for the rest of the world (ROW). Trump has implemented his plans in such a ham fisted way that the ROW has almost no choice but to manage international relations without the US. That gives us lots of really good options if we're prepared to seize the opportunity. We will truly have a multipolar world. Multipolar has its own challenges as often decision making is slow. But it can be better than being pushed around by the US empire.
There is the danger that China will replace the US as the hegemonic power. But that would be difficult for China to pull off, especially as at present it will take a lot of effort by China to manage the US withdrawal. And China is not trusted by most so it's hard to be hegemonic in this diverse world without trust. There is a huge opportunity for the Europeans, Australia, NZ, Japan, India, Brazil, Korea, Canada etc to construct a new more equitable international architecture in cooperation with China.
So we truly do live in interesting times. The transition may be difficult but the possible new futures are extraordinary.
Other than that, Mrs. Kennedy, how did you enjoy your trip to Dallas?
We just might tiptoe right to the precipice and draw back, but that won't "save democracy" in the sense of restoring the status quo ante. What we thought of as the unbreakable foundations are as shattered as if they slid down the hill in a landslide.
The institutions of civil society are much stronger in the US than in the other recently autocratic-after-an-democratic-election states (eg Hungary, Turkiye, Russia, Venezuela), and they and the federated nature of the country may in the end stymy these criminal kleptocrats, but I think it's a certainty that a massive violence is baked in now, and this northern summer will be shocking. There's no way the US gets out of this, if it does, without huge upheaval and destruction of lives. Expect a rapid decline from a scarcely believable 42% approval rating. Also, I think everything Trump does can be seen through two related factors - an increasing senility and an overwhelming desire to be groveled to. Everything around him pitches to those factors, and it will only get worse. When he goes (I don't care how), the scramble for riches will be acute, and extremely dangerous.
The Diadochi who fought over the succession to Alexander the Great - Ptolemy, Antigonus, Cassander, and Seleucus - were capable and experienced generals, hand-picked by Alexander, who established dynasties lasting centuries. Who does Trump have in his inner circle with significant experience managing a large organisation? Rubio has been a mediocre Governor of Florida. Musk has built three large companies, but has trashed two of them out of vanity. Wright is an actual businessman, but outside the inner circle. The rest are lightweights (Bessent, Hegseth), and/or fanatics (Vought. Kennedy, Miller), and/or flacks (Vance, Gabbard). After the failed assassination attempt on Hitler in 1944, Goebbels -Gauleiter of Berlin, a man without any military experience - rapidly assembled a small force of loyal troops in Berlin and snuffed out the generals' conspiracy with decisive and ruthless action.. Can you see anyone in the Trump circle capable of doing this?
The precedent to look for here is the Year of the Four Emperors.
Without wanting to sound too cold blooded, I find it interesting how important timing is in all this. In a democracy, timing matters, but it's not crucial because things are - by and large, more or less - reversible. But when things become irreversible, you're in the realm of History with a capital H.
If your predictions are correct, there are Republican representatives who, with six month foresight, would vote against Trump. There are probably even members of the administration who in a year's time will wish they acted differently. But we're in a chain where the Democrats realised too late Biden was unelectable, so they never got to test Harris in a primary, etc. etc. It reads like a high school modern history textbook.
This was predicted when Agenda 2025s plans were announced if Trump was elected, they learnt from their mistakes last time.
Now Europe wants to bankrupt itself so sell its soul to the MIC. Look at the share prices soar of the producers of death whilst pensions are cut and laid back 12 years in one hit from. 55 to 67 for Belgium government workers whilst they give promise to give one billion per year to the Ukie hohols. Germany the same.
We have given our half a billion donation for the never to arrive sub.
Your failure to consider Russia in your complaint is telling.
G'day Cheez, please advise what consideration of Russia you are suggesting is lacking?
I think the “effective popular resistance” obviously hasn’t been effective so the end is nigh.
The recent SC ruling was hopeful but enforcement could be problematic.
Great followup to your original post. One question: in the second to last paragraph did you mean you **cannot** see this happening? The rest of the 'graph seems to say why you ""can"". Yesterday's supreme court may suggest some push back on that front but the acquiesence and complicity of the MAGA (formerly Republican) members of Congress who with only token exceptions are 99.9% on board.
Yes, I got mixed up in editing there. But we will find out soon enough
TDS
It will be difficult for the Trumpists to control the electoral machinery in Democratic states. But that may only slow them down as they can use the full power of the State and Justice department against Democrat candidates in Republican seats.
The economic collapse due to chaotic tariff policy may be moderated if the Republicans in Congress decide in desperation to take control of tariff policy, but that outcome may substantially reduce the anger against Congressional Republicans, which could reduce the electoral backlash.
So there are factors that could go against the Trumpists, but it's not looking promising.
One factor that gives me hope is the extreme displays of obsequiousness by the Trump cabinet towards Trump. I know this was done to some extent during Trump's first term, but the displays have become so extreme now that I think it could have some impact on Republicans and Independents.