9 Comments
Sep 13Liked by John Quiggin

You don't get to be a rear admiral by managing a bunch of missiles (most effectively delivered by those damned flyboys anyway). No, you need to have controlled a whopping great expensive lump of floating metal to gain sufficient credibility. Anyway it is clear that we'll be fighting with a WW2 mindset for a while yet.

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Sep 13Liked by John Quiggin

Very plausible.

Many of the various obsessions around China right now seem designed to increase military spending, and various other things. Most of it isn’t very coherent.

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Sep 13Liked by John Quiggin

China has no immediate intention to blockade Taiwan, at the moment its very happy to leave things as they stand. It’s more likely in a few years time to attempt to increase trade and diplomatic links with Taiwan.

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I think that there must be an 'i' missing from the surname of your ancestor 'Quggin.'

Oddly enough, only a few weeks ago I watched a documentary about the 1952 murders (still unsolved) of the British scientist, Sir Jack Drummond; his wife; and his daughter. Sir Jack, during World War II, probably did more than other individual to teach the Brits how to eat properly.

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author

Fixed now, I hope

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Yeah it now reads Qggan.

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Military aggression hasn't made sense in at least the past 100 years, but recent history is littered with them.

A blockade of Taiwan is idiotic. President Xi is an idiot. I can see him harassing ships around Taiwan, similar to the Philippines, then waiting for a reaction. Trading semiconductors for soybeans is idiotic. President Trump is an idiot. He poses as the deal maker, but he would trade a cow for magic beans.

My fear is that an idiot does something which makes him look stupid and weak, then he overcompensates to look strong. The result is a vicious cycle of impulsive, idiotic escalations.

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"Anyone involved in such a campaign would likely end up in a cell in The Hague, unless they were victorious." The Netherlands has been closing prisons for lack of domestic customers ( https://ournews.bs/netherlands-closes-prisons-due-to-shortage-of-criminals/ ). I assume they are being sold off cheap for the land value - there isn't really anything else you can use them for. You would think some speculator would take a chance and buy one for incarcerating international criminals. Globally, the war crimes business is flourishing, and while enforcement lags behind, it is slowly getting more effective. ICJ arrest warrants may not be universally respected, but they aren't laughed at.

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Well flensed, JQ.

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