I hope - and actually THINK - that we are at that point where the previously slowly rising chart of renewables and storage is beginning to turn more and more steeply upwards.
It would seem the momentum is already inexorable and the only real question is "how soon?".
Absolute numbers are of course still low in places like Thailand, South Africa, Brazil and, er, Australia. But Chinese automakers have been spreading their marketing net wide to reach even small countries like Costa Rica. This diversification makes them more resilient in the face of protectionist headwinds in the EU (moderate) and the USA (insane). Besides, the slowdown in the US and EU is relative, not a recession, except for Tesla´s suicide by CEO.
A hopeful podcast to listen to is "What's Your Problem?" with Jacob Goldstein. He speaks to entrepreneurs trying to solve social problems, and although it isn't exclusively about climate, a lot of it is. I just finished listening to the interview with the CEO of the compressed air electricity storage company which is building a facility near Broken Hill.
I wouldn't describe myself as a technology optimist when it comes to climate, but there really are a lot of very smart, motivated people working to solve the problem of energy storage.
John Q’s endorsement of the good news message prudently does not extend to my prediction that global GHG emissions have peaked. We won’t have the data on this for some time. The EU publishes a handy database of annual GHG emissions for all countries. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2024 The latest data are for 2023. The changes over 2022 were:
China +784 mt
India +236 mt
United States -85 mt
Japan -67 mt
EU27 -261 mt
Rest of world +386 mt
Global total +994 mt (up 1.9%)
The increase in China was 79% of the global total. It seems clear that we can pencil in zero or better for China in 2025, after a probable increase to a peak in 2024. If all other countries stayed on their identical same tracks, we would be left with a small annual global increase of 210 mt, up 0.6% from 2022. The assumption is of course counterfactual, and the result is well within the margin of error of this crude model. I’m not changing my hopeful prediction, but recognize that it is very iffy. We seem to be in the middle of a Hitchcock-style attack by a mob of black swans, both farcical and dangerous.
To forestall suspicions of favoritism as against other unrewarded butt deserving commenters, let me recall that I did put some actual work into digging out Chinese statistics, no just reposting a link with my opinions, which are no more noteworthy than anybody else's. https://www.jameswimberley.es/Articles/Chinawende.xlsx
I hope - and actually THINK - that we are at that point where the previously slowly rising chart of renewables and storage is beginning to turn more and more steeply upwards.
It would seem the momentum is already inexorable and the only real question is "how soon?".
PS on electric vehicles.
JQ: "The picture is less promising with the transition to electric vehicles, which has slowed in most places. "
IEA: "In relative terms, the most substantial growth was observed outside of the major EV markets, where sales increased by over 50%". https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-cars#electric-car-sales
Absolute numbers are of course still low in places like Thailand, South Africa, Brazil and, er, Australia. But Chinese automakers have been spreading their marketing net wide to reach even small countries like Costa Rica. This diversification makes them more resilient in the face of protectionist headwinds in the EU (moderate) and the USA (insane). Besides, the slowdown in the US and EU is relative, not a recession, except for Tesla´s suicide by CEO.
A hopeful podcast to listen to is "What's Your Problem?" with Jacob Goldstein. He speaks to entrepreneurs trying to solve social problems, and although it isn't exclusively about climate, a lot of it is. I just finished listening to the interview with the CEO of the compressed air electricity storage company which is building a facility near Broken Hill.
I wouldn't describe myself as a technology optimist when it comes to climate, but there really are a lot of very smart, motivated people working to solve the problem of energy storage.
https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/whats-your-problem is the link.
The article in the Saturday Paper by Saul Griffiths should be read https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/20548/4porKIQ
John Q’s endorsement of the good news message prudently does not extend to my prediction that global GHG emissions have peaked. We won’t have the data on this for some time. The EU publishes a handy database of annual GHG emissions for all countries. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2024 The latest data are for 2023. The changes over 2022 were:
China +784 mt
India +236 mt
United States -85 mt
Japan -67 mt
EU27 -261 mt
Rest of world +386 mt
Global total +994 mt (up 1.9%)
The increase in China was 79% of the global total. It seems clear that we can pencil in zero or better for China in 2025, after a probable increase to a peak in 2024. If all other countries stayed on their identical same tracks, we would be left with a small annual global increase of 210 mt, up 0.6% from 2022. The assumption is of course counterfactual, and the result is well within the margin of error of this crude model. I’m not changing my hopeful prediction, but recognize that it is very iffy. We seem to be in the middle of a Hitchcock-style attack by a mob of black swans, both farcical and dangerous.
Credit much appreciated, John!
To forestall suspicions of favoritism as against other unrewarded butt deserving commenters, let me recall that I did put some actual work into digging out Chinese statistics, no just reposting a link with my opinions, which are no more noteworthy than anybody else's. https://www.jameswimberley.es/Articles/Chinawende.xlsx