• “China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions stayed at, or just below, last year’s levels in the third quarter of 2024, after a fall in the second quarter.
• China’s electricity demand increased by 7.2% year-on-year. Heatwaves through much of August and September caused a major increase in electricity demand for air conditioning, which, combined with weak hydropower output, meant a 2% increase in coal-fired power generation and a 13% rise for gas-fired power in the third quarter.
• This was despite wind and solar growth continuing to break records. Looking at the whole summer period, whether taken as May-September or June-August, clean-energy expansion covered all of electricity demand growth.
• The increase in emissions in the power sector was offset by falling emissions from steel, cement and oil use, plus stagnating gas demand outside the power sector, meaning China’s CO2 output in the third quarter was flat or slightly declined, relative to a year earlier.
• Emissions would need to fall by at least 2% in the last three months of the year, for China’s annual total to drop from 2023 levels. This outcome is supported by the ongoing slowdown in industrial power demand growth and the end of the air-conditioning season. However, new economic stimulus plans announced in late September with no apparent emphasis on emissions, add uncertainty to this outlook.”
New Chinese solar deployment alone is running at 20 GW a month, and I can’t see why this should slow down, with current fire-sale low prices. On the other hand, we have seen half-baked stimulus measures to revive the moribund property sector (fn) in the past, and no sign of any appetite by Beijing for the drastic bailouts and write-downs that could do the job. EV sales are over half the new car market, and oil products probably peaked in 2023. ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-oil-products-demand-peaked-2023-with-decline-accelerate-researcher-says-2024-09-10/ ) Unless China gets a very cold winter, a small absolute decline in GHG emissions is a distinct possibility in 2024, and a bigger one very likely in 2025.
If China’s emissions do fall, even if by a little, there is a good chance the same will true for the world. They are already down in Europe (–8% in 2023) and the USA (-0.6%, after accounting for methane leaks).
Footnote
I live in Spain. The frenetic property boom came to a sudden halt in the GFC of 2007-2008. Building has restarted since, but the new normal is a vastly slower pace. It will never return to pre-GFC levels.
Peak emissions?
Time to check in on our new hegemon, since the USA is apparently determined to abdicate the role.
China energy guru Lauri Myllyvirta reports at Carbon Brief on the curate’s egg progress of the Chinese energy transition in Q3 of this year ( https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-no-growth-for-chinas-emissions-in-q3-2024-despite-coal-power-rebound/ ). Select quotations/paraphrases:
• “China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions stayed at, or just below, last year’s levels in the third quarter of 2024, after a fall in the second quarter.
• China’s electricity demand increased by 7.2% year-on-year. Heatwaves through much of August and September caused a major increase in electricity demand for air conditioning, which, combined with weak hydropower output, meant a 2% increase in coal-fired power generation and a 13% rise for gas-fired power in the third quarter.
• This was despite wind and solar growth continuing to break records. Looking at the whole summer period, whether taken as May-September or June-August, clean-energy expansion covered all of electricity demand growth.
• The increase in emissions in the power sector was offset by falling emissions from steel, cement and oil use, plus stagnating gas demand outside the power sector, meaning China’s CO2 output in the third quarter was flat or slightly declined, relative to a year earlier.
• Emissions would need to fall by at least 2% in the last three months of the year, for China’s annual total to drop from 2023 levels. This outcome is supported by the ongoing slowdown in industrial power demand growth and the end of the air-conditioning season. However, new economic stimulus plans announced in late September with no apparent emphasis on emissions, add uncertainty to this outlook.”
New Chinese solar deployment alone is running at 20 GW a month, and I can’t see why this should slow down, with current fire-sale low prices. On the other hand, we have seen half-baked stimulus measures to revive the moribund property sector (fn) in the past, and no sign of any appetite by Beijing for the drastic bailouts and write-downs that could do the job. EV sales are over half the new car market, and oil products probably peaked in 2023. ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-oil-products-demand-peaked-2023-with-decline-accelerate-researcher-says-2024-09-10/ ) Unless China gets a very cold winter, a small absolute decline in GHG emissions is a distinct possibility in 2024, and a bigger one very likely in 2025.
If China’s emissions do fall, even if by a little, there is a good chance the same will true for the world. They are already down in Europe (–8% in 2023) and the USA (-0.6%, after accounting for methane leaks).
Footnote
I live in Spain. The frenetic property boom came to a sudden halt in the GFC of 2007-2008. Building has restarted since, but the new normal is a vastly slower pace. It will never return to pre-GFC levels.
Cheap and getting cheaper, solar PV is an irresistible force. I hope it arrives in time to minimise the damage from global heating
Thanks for this post, James!