My Budget response from The Conversation This week’s budget was Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third and – for practical purposes – final for the current parliamentary term. Even if the 2025 election is delayed long enough to give Labor another budget, that speech would represent more of an election manifesto than any deliverable legislation.
I get the strong impression that the Albanese Government has made the strategic calculation that it cannot win a public political argument with the Coalition over any except a small set of issues (and then only if its own position is only incrementally different), and so it has decided to refrain from doing anything that would require or bring on such an argument.
That’s been my impression too, after previous ALP Govts imploded under the weight of their promises it’s been a softly softly approach to governance. Excepting the Voice, which was an abject failure of implementation.
They seem to be allowing space for the LNP to make the greater qty of errors thereby losing the election. This is understandable when you consider the media support for the LNP.
John, for me Albanese has been a bitter disappointment. Prior to his election I had no real opinion of him; I didn’t know him, he appeared to be a reasonable person. But now, nothing but disgust, his only ambition has been to get re-elected.
I get that people thought Shorten lacked charisma, but I’ve always thought it was vastly overrated. I think Australia missed out when he lost, and he lost because of our collective greed.
That has been eminently possible since we elected a Senate in 2022 in which Labor, the Greens, Lidia Thorpe and David Pocock could combine to form a majority. However, on numerous occasions key figures in the government such as Chalmers have stated that they would prefer to be able to reach bipartisan agreement with the Coalition on legislation rather than having to deal with the crossbench, one rationale being that this would be more to the liking of business.
I expect we will see the emergence, if it isn't already there, of a (deniably de-facto) alliance between Labor and LNP on critical issues that will render the cross bench ineffectual, eg supporting the fossil fuel miners all the way to giving generous subsidies for gas hubs and ports, easier environmental approval as well as (freely given) the maintaining of appearances of viability and credibility for CCS, carbon offsets and other Greenwash schemes.
They are definitely "Shit Lite (TM Juice Media)" IMHO. And my ideal outcome next election will see another five (minimum) elected to the cross-bench but I do wonder if Australians will fall back into old habits and just vote for the major parties en masse again?
You are right questioning the credentials of the current ALP federal government when claiming to be the party of the disadvantaged. With one on seven children in Australia now living in poverty, this government is callous of the extremely unfair distribution of income in this country. The lack of wealth, but public and private, available to the lowest income earners is scandalous. Chasing up on back taxes from a few multinationals is not going to cut it as social redistribution of wealth. During periods of high inflation it is the poor that suffers the most. First their fixed incomes lose its purchasing power; second their lack of wealth increases their chances of homelessness; and third their dependence on social overhead capital makes them vulnerable to exclusion events like poor education, slow health recovery and violence from poor home security.
I now call the current federal ALP the:
ARTIFICIAL LABOR PARTY
It does not deserve to be ranked with the great ALP governments of the past. Albanese is no Curtain, let alone being a very poor successor to Whitlam and Hawke. The ALP federal cabinet members would struggle to make it into any past ALP cabinet room without factional support. The whole federal party is overburdened with underachievers and socially lazy politicians.
My ancestors were strong Labour supporters. My great-grandfather was ALP Deputy-Premier of Queensland and my grandfather was state ALP member for Cairns. Not one of them would recognise this current federal ALP mob as being worth a cracker.
The federal LNP is no better but they do not pretend to be the champion of the disadvantaged and the worker.
The federal budget was not just full of missed opportunities, it was a reevaluation. This “King” is not wearing any “clothes”. The federal ALP is exposed for what it really is. A bunch of politicians desperately holding onto power and privilege. Pathetic.
Great analysis John. Perhaps we will be seeing an election in November/December this year? Some increased spending with the budget in relevant areas, but as you note Stage 3 will make it difficult to fund this long term.
I get the strong impression that the Albanese Government has made the strategic calculation that it cannot win a public political argument with the Coalition over any except a small set of issues (and then only if its own position is only incrementally different), and so it has decided to refrain from doing anything that would require or bring on such an argument.
That’s been my impression too, after previous ALP Govts imploded under the weight of their promises it’s been a softly softly approach to governance. Excepting the Voice, which was an abject failure of implementation.
They seem to be allowing space for the LNP to make the greater qty of errors thereby losing the election. This is understandable when you consider the media support for the LNP.
John, for me Albanese has been a bitter disappointment. Prior to his election I had no real opinion of him; I didn’t know him, he appeared to be a reasonable person. But now, nothing but disgust, his only ambition has been to get re-elected.
I get that people thought Shorten lacked charisma, but I’ve always thought it was vastly overrated. I think Australia missed out when he lost, and he lost because of our collective greed.
Yep, Shorten (and Labor's) policies at the time would have delivered a far better Australia
What do we want? MINORITY GOVERNMENT. When do we want it? NOW!
True. A Labor Government that relies on the Greens and other progressives to get things done is the ideal situation.
That has been eminently possible since we elected a Senate in 2022 in which Labor, the Greens, Lidia Thorpe and David Pocock could combine to form a majority. However, on numerous occasions key figures in the government such as Chalmers have stated that they would prefer to be able to reach bipartisan agreement with the Coalition on legislation rather than having to deal with the crossbench, one rationale being that this would be more to the liking of business.
I expect we will see the emergence, if it isn't already there, of a (deniably de-facto) alliance between Labor and LNP on critical issues that will render the cross bench ineffectual, eg supporting the fossil fuel miners all the way to giving generous subsidies for gas hubs and ports, easier environmental approval as well as (freely given) the maintaining of appearances of viability and credibility for CCS, carbon offsets and other Greenwash schemes.
The Albanese government has been very disappointing. I've seen a homeless encampment pop in my central Victorian town since Albanese took office, which is completely unacceptable. It is the job of a Labor government to make sure things like mass homelessness never happen. Apparently bipartisan policy has almost completely eliminated homelessness in Finland. It is doable https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-paradigm-shift-in-social-policy-how-finland-conquered-homelessness-a-ba1a531e-8129-4c71-94fc-7268c5b109d9
They are definitely "Shit Lite (TM Juice Media)" IMHO. And my ideal outcome next election will see another five (minimum) elected to the cross-bench but I do wonder if Australians will fall back into old habits and just vote for the major parties en masse again?
All said, I agree with your summation John.
You are right questioning the credentials of the current ALP federal government when claiming to be the party of the disadvantaged. With one on seven children in Australia now living in poverty, this government is callous of the extremely unfair distribution of income in this country. The lack of wealth, but public and private, available to the lowest income earners is scandalous. Chasing up on back taxes from a few multinationals is not going to cut it as social redistribution of wealth. During periods of high inflation it is the poor that suffers the most. First their fixed incomes lose its purchasing power; second their lack of wealth increases their chances of homelessness; and third their dependence on social overhead capital makes them vulnerable to exclusion events like poor education, slow health recovery and violence from poor home security.
I now call the current federal ALP the:
ARTIFICIAL LABOR PARTY
It does not deserve to be ranked with the great ALP governments of the past. Albanese is no Curtain, let alone being a very poor successor to Whitlam and Hawke. The ALP federal cabinet members would struggle to make it into any past ALP cabinet room without factional support. The whole federal party is overburdened with underachievers and socially lazy politicians.
My ancestors were strong Labour supporters. My great-grandfather was ALP Deputy-Premier of Queensland and my grandfather was state ALP member for Cairns. Not one of them would recognise this current federal ALP mob as being worth a cracker.
The federal LNP is no better but they do not pretend to be the champion of the disadvantaged and the worker.
The federal budget was not just full of missed opportunities, it was a reevaluation. This “King” is not wearing any “clothes”. The federal ALP is exposed for what it really is. A bunch of politicians desperately holding onto power and privilege. Pathetic.
ARTIFICIAL LABOR PARTY, Just LOVE that, so much I'm going to use it!
My only comment is that it’s been 3+ decades since the ARTIFICIAL LABOR PARTY gave a damn about those in need.
Great analysis John. Perhaps we will be seeing an election in November/December this year? Some increased spending with the budget in relevant areas, but as you note Stage 3 will make it difficult to fund this long term.
"There’s nothing new about opposition parties campaigning on a “small target” strategy."
Au contraire, the LNP opposition emergent strategy, actually slashing nom, is a winning contemporary small target in an entirely different sense.