If fossil fuel exports do decline because of concerns about climate and growth of renewable energy... at least the fossil fuel export industries (and their unions) won't find any cause to blame the ALP?
Have to say Albanese's government is dismayingly disappointing, especially knowing that the ALP and LNP stand together in their deep commitment to doing the least possible - effectively nullifying the power of any minority government with a Greens and Teals cross bench.
Deeply dismaying that climate destabilisation is not and has never been treated as a serious threat to Australia's prosperity and security and public safety and no Australian government has ever acted on the expert advice like it is actually true, like they had any duty of care... duty to Australia's future, above, beyond and aside from what media deflected and moderated public opinion can demand of them - because they don't want to. Rather, our government(s) act as if their primary duty of care is to protecting the long term prospects of the fossil fuel mining sector and it's profitability. Saving fossil fuels from global warming, yay.
Right now the fastest growing source of domestic emissions, enough to blow past the current "target", is that expanding of fossil fuel production for export. In order to sustain the illusion that Australia's emissions are going down whilst they are going up... we get dodgy carbon offsets and CCS. These are greenlighted in a fashion more akin to gaslighting than to greening.
Carbon offsets - this is claiming the recovery of vegetation back closer to prior levels as emissions reduction. They aren't. Not even claimed as land use emissions reductions but falsely and knowingly claimed as equivalent to fossil fuel emissions reduction - a travesty on the same low level as those holding the highest Offices of trust and responsibility handing the climate issue to public opinion, notably without fact checking - "you think it is true, you fix it".
Un-tried, un-proven sea bed CCS? Yay, that will fix it - in a similar sense to race-fixing maybe.
For all that there is so much to be positive about - the means to have energy abundance with low emissions, renewable energy mostly, some of the best of it developed by Australians - the absolute, unwavering ALP support for fossil fuel mining, even absent the LNP's open hostility to RE, undercuts any optimism. "Fixing" the Greens matters more to Albanese's government than fixing emissions.
The issue that is usually not addressed is the value of carbon exports towards Australia’s GDP. Until Australia is able to find a substitute for our overseas earnings from carbon this is not going to happen no matter which of the duopoly controls federal parliament.
Mining and exporting coal in Australia is not inconsistent with an Australian commitment to reduce emissions of CO2 in Australia or by Australian consumers. That there is demand for coal exports implies that some OTHER countries do not have adequate policies in place to discourage the emissions of CO2, (e.g. German closure of its nuclear reactors) but Australian policy cannot be expected to make up for the the failings of other less responsible countries.
Besides, by how much would an Australian decision not to export coal raise the price of coal and so by how much woud demand fall and how much less CO2 woud be emitted?
JQ rightly satirises this excuse as the drug dealer's and litterbug's defences. To this seedy company I would add gun dealers. The arguments are cowardly evasions of responsibility. Fortunately for the world, Australia did not respond in this way in 1914 and 1939, with weaker cases.
The cowardice also clouds judgement in the hard-headed assessment of risks. The IEA's latest forecast of global coal consumption in 2024 is a trivial 0.4% increase, well within the margin of error. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-july-2024/demand . If it does not fall in China in 2024, it will in 2025, with massive deployment of dirt cheap solar and anaemic GDP growth. The main driver of growth in coal is India, with a strong policy of import substitution. Solar panels are at 10c per watt, and batteries are heading for $100 per kwh https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-are-expected-to-fall-almost-50-percent-by-2025. These price trends make investment in new coal generation a absurd choice anywhere, and early scrapping of old plants increasingly attractive. The prospects for Australian thermal coal experts are dim, and those for met coal only slightly better. The EU`s planned carbon border taxes will cast a long indirect shadow via Asian exporters. An ethical phaseout policy on coal exports is very likely the right one pragmatically, and certainly less risky.
I don’t agree with your inconsistent claim, otherwise it’s a “problem belong everyone else” attitude.
As to prices, Australian coal is mostly at the bottom end of the cost curve, not exporting it would increase the cost of coal making renewables even more favourable.
If fossil fuel exports do decline because of concerns about climate and growth of renewable energy... at least the fossil fuel export industries (and their unions) won't find any cause to blame the ALP?
Have to say Albanese's government is dismayingly disappointing, especially knowing that the ALP and LNP stand together in their deep commitment to doing the least possible - effectively nullifying the power of any minority government with a Greens and Teals cross bench.
Deeply dismaying that climate destabilisation is not and has never been treated as a serious threat to Australia's prosperity and security and public safety and no Australian government has ever acted on the expert advice like it is actually true, like they had any duty of care... duty to Australia's future, above, beyond and aside from what media deflected and moderated public opinion can demand of them - because they don't want to. Rather, our government(s) act as if their primary duty of care is to protecting the long term prospects of the fossil fuel mining sector and it's profitability. Saving fossil fuels from global warming, yay.
Right now the fastest growing source of domestic emissions, enough to blow past the current "target", is that expanding of fossil fuel production for export. In order to sustain the illusion that Australia's emissions are going down whilst they are going up... we get dodgy carbon offsets and CCS. These are greenlighted in a fashion more akin to gaslighting than to greening.
Carbon offsets - this is claiming the recovery of vegetation back closer to prior levels as emissions reduction. They aren't. Not even claimed as land use emissions reductions but falsely and knowingly claimed as equivalent to fossil fuel emissions reduction - a travesty on the same low level as those holding the highest Offices of trust and responsibility handing the climate issue to public opinion, notably without fact checking - "you think it is true, you fix it".
Un-tried, un-proven sea bed CCS? Yay, that will fix it - in a similar sense to race-fixing maybe.
For all that there is so much to be positive about - the means to have energy abundance with low emissions, renewable energy mostly, some of the best of it developed by Australians - the absolute, unwavering ALP support for fossil fuel mining, even absent the LNP's open hostility to RE, undercuts any optimism. "Fixing" the Greens matters more to Albanese's government than fixing emissions.
The issue that is usually not addressed is the value of carbon exports towards Australia’s GDP. Until Australia is able to find a substitute for our overseas earnings from carbon this is not going to happen no matter which of the duopoly controls federal parliament.
Mining and exporting coal in Australia is not inconsistent with an Australian commitment to reduce emissions of CO2 in Australia or by Australian consumers. That there is demand for coal exports implies that some OTHER countries do not have adequate policies in place to discourage the emissions of CO2, (e.g. German closure of its nuclear reactors) but Australian policy cannot be expected to make up for the the failings of other less responsible countries.
Besides, by how much would an Australian decision not to export coal raise the price of coal and so by how much woud demand fall and how much less CO2 woud be emitted?
JQ rightly satirises this excuse as the drug dealer's and litterbug's defences. To this seedy company I would add gun dealers. The arguments are cowardly evasions of responsibility. Fortunately for the world, Australia did not respond in this way in 1914 and 1939, with weaker cases.
The cowardice also clouds judgement in the hard-headed assessment of risks. The IEA's latest forecast of global coal consumption in 2024 is a trivial 0.4% increase, well within the margin of error. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-mid-year-update-july-2024/demand . If it does not fall in China in 2024, it will in 2025, with massive deployment of dirt cheap solar and anaemic GDP growth. The main driver of growth in coal is India, with a strong policy of import substitution. Solar panels are at 10c per watt, and batteries are heading for $100 per kwh https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-are-expected-to-fall-almost-50-percent-by-2025. These price trends make investment in new coal generation a absurd choice anywhere, and early scrapping of old plants increasingly attractive. The prospects for Australian thermal coal experts are dim, and those for met coal only slightly better. The EU`s planned carbon border taxes will cast a long indirect shadow via Asian exporters. An ethical phaseout policy on coal exports is very likely the right one pragmatically, and certainly less risky.
I don’t agree with your inconsistent claim, otherwise it’s a “problem belong everyone else” attitude.
As to prices, Australian coal is mostly at the bottom end of the cost curve, not exporting it would increase the cost of coal making renewables even more favourable.