The venerable Michael Ignatieff was on radio the other day https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-canada-america-trump-michael-ignatieff/104855450. He concluded (I think) that the "world" was re-organising into three poles, headed by Russia, China & USA. Saying (I think, again) that China will be left to control East Asia, Russia to control Europe and USA it's immediate region. Timothy Snyder is on the EU's case, urging the European democracies to shape up to the imminent pressures.
Seems to me that Australia's importance is to the Anglophone collective as a critical piece of real estate for defending its values, and as resource of minerals. But on the matter of those rare earths & critical minerals, we've probably left the run too late. Either the leases are already in the hands of private enterprise, or the business of breaking new ground will be much more difficult due to pre-existing claims over ownership.
A spokesperson for a manufacturing union (??) was on ABC radio today pleading for more home-grown processing of iron & aluminium. I can hear the IPA & Murdoch's foot-soldiers screaming already. (More unionists! Heaven forbid!) I fear not even an Albanese-led ALP has the courage to stand up for trades unions as a central harmonising & civilising part of a liberal democracy. Jason Stanley in 'How Fascism Works' has a pretty good explanation of why labor unions are always in the sights of autocratic forces.
This greatly overestimates Russia, which is little more than a Chinese client now, incapable of defeating Ukraine, let alone the EU as a whole. Europe is the third pole and the only big representative of democracy left
As for the Anglosphere (including Deep State relics like the Five Eyes), Trump's threat to invade Canada will put paid to that idea fairly soon
I believe you are a tad hasty to dismiss the threat of Indonesia. I agree they are not a threat at present. But that does not mean they won’t be a threat in the mid or long term.
While not disagreeing with you, its a little glib to suggest that the US not in NATO is as trivial as 100,000 less troops in Europe - especially given raw troop figures aren't the US military's strength. Its the asymmetric capabilities that matter - intelligence, special forces, long range strike - which just aren't as replaceable, even if Ukraine has 800,000 troops.
It seems that all agreements are rock solid until they aren't, the reason for breach being for "self defence". Threats don't necessarily have to be in a military form; attacks on culture, morality or identity will suffice. Culture wars precede military conflict, they just won't give up will they?
So when considering the alternatives, we don't seem to have much to choose from.
I view AUKUS as extortion and that seems to be how it is, we have to buy our peace in instalments. My next car will be a Chinese EV.
After Trump proposed tariffs for Australia's metal and aluminium products, I was hoping that Albanese would say to him: 'We're sick of donating money to the United States (the recent payment towards Aukus being $789 million (?)) We haven't received one submarine yet so we're going to hang onto the rest of that money and to the metal and aluminium products and build our own submarines' (So there!)
Australia should be fostering (and maintaining) relations with various countries, not just for what they can do for us but how we can support each other. It was pathetic last year when the Australian government dispatched Ministers to the Solomons because that country had nominated China as its protector/defender.
They aren't waiting for me to advise them. Canada is already looking to the EU and UK. Mercosur is an obvious fit for Mexico, and already has a trade agreement with the EU>
The Canada EU thing puzzles me, isn't the EU meant to be, well, Europe, as it says in the name? The place where Canada isn't? Or are all alliances now to be more cultural than geographic, as of course they often have been?
Fun fact, Canada shares a small land border with Europe, through Hans Island, which is part of Denmark.
More so, Canada's blend of social, political, and economic systems places it closer to Europe than the US in many respects, despite its geographical proximity to the United States. Consider Universal Healthcare, strong Social Safety Net, strong Labor Rights & Worker Protections, Gun Control, British Westminster system, Strong Regulation & Government Intervention, CETA, etc
The venerable Michael Ignatieff was on radio the other day https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-canada-america-trump-michael-ignatieff/104855450. He concluded (I think) that the "world" was re-organising into three poles, headed by Russia, China & USA. Saying (I think, again) that China will be left to control East Asia, Russia to control Europe and USA it's immediate region. Timothy Snyder is on the EU's case, urging the European democracies to shape up to the imminent pressures.
Seems to me that Australia's importance is to the Anglophone collective as a critical piece of real estate for defending its values, and as resource of minerals. But on the matter of those rare earths & critical minerals, we've probably left the run too late. Either the leases are already in the hands of private enterprise, or the business of breaking new ground will be much more difficult due to pre-existing claims over ownership.
A spokesperson for a manufacturing union (??) was on ABC radio today pleading for more home-grown processing of iron & aluminium. I can hear the IPA & Murdoch's foot-soldiers screaming already. (More unionists! Heaven forbid!) I fear not even an Albanese-led ALP has the courage to stand up for trades unions as a central harmonising & civilising part of a liberal democracy. Jason Stanley in 'How Fascism Works' has a pretty good explanation of why labor unions are always in the sights of autocratic forces.
This greatly overestimates Russia, which is little more than a Chinese client now, incapable of defeating Ukraine, let alone the EU as a whole. Europe is the third pole and the only big representative of democracy left
As for the Anglosphere (including Deep State relics like the Five Eyes), Trump's threat to invade Canada will put paid to that idea fairly soon
It was going to happen eventually. A soft landing was what I was hoping for.
Excellent article, thanks.
I believe you are a tad hasty to dismiss the threat of Indonesia. I agree they are not a threat at present. But that does not mean they won’t be a threat in the mid or long term.
While not disagreeing with you, its a little glib to suggest that the US not in NATO is as trivial as 100,000 less troops in Europe - especially given raw troop figures aren't the US military's strength. Its the asymmetric capabilities that matter - intelligence, special forces, long range strike - which just aren't as replaceable, even if Ukraine has 800,000 troops.
Looking at US track record of military failure from Vietnam onwards*, I'm unconvinced they have a special sauce possessed by no-one else
* Arguably from the moment they reached the Yalu river in 1950.
That said, with the US now unilaterally applying blanket tarrifs, is it now time to disavow the cumbersome US-AU trade treaty?
Trump has already repudiated the treaty along with USMCA which he negotiated himself.
It seems that all agreements are rock solid until they aren't, the reason for breach being for "self defence". Threats don't necessarily have to be in a military form; attacks on culture, morality or identity will suffice. Culture wars precede military conflict, they just won't give up will they?
So when considering the alternatives, we don't seem to have much to choose from.
I view AUKUS as extortion and that seems to be how it is, we have to buy our peace in instalments. My next car will be a Chinese EV.
After Trump proposed tariffs for Australia's metal and aluminium products, I was hoping that Albanese would say to him: 'We're sick of donating money to the United States (the recent payment towards Aukus being $789 million (?)) We haven't received one submarine yet so we're going to hang onto the rest of that money and to the metal and aluminium products and build our own submarines' (So there!)
Australia should be fostering (and maintaining) relations with various countries, not just for what they can do for us but how we can support each other. It was pathetic last year when the Australian government dispatched Ministers to the Solomons because that country had nominated China as its protector/defender.
What advice would you have to Canada and Mexico? Join Mercosur? Join the EU?
They aren't waiting for me to advise them. Canada is already looking to the EU and UK. Mercosur is an obvious fit for Mexico, and already has a trade agreement with the EU>
The Canada EU thing puzzles me, isn't the EU meant to be, well, Europe, as it says in the name? The place where Canada isn't? Or are all alliances now to be more cultural than geographic, as of course they often have been?
Australia has been in Eurovision for years, and the UK just joined the TransPacific Partnership.
OTOH, current EU rules specifically limit membership to European countries, so for the moment it will just be a free trade agreement.
Fun fact, Canada shares a small land border with Europe, through Hans Island, which is part of Denmark.
More so, Canada's blend of social, political, and economic systems places it closer to Europe than the US in many respects, despite its geographical proximity to the United States. Consider Universal Healthcare, strong Social Safety Net, strong Labor Rights & Worker Protections, Gun Control, British Westminster system, Strong Regulation & Government Intervention, CETA, etc
Great point
Apparently Canada and Denmark take turns planting flags on Hans Island, so it’s politely contested, if that makes a difference