Hopefully somehow soon the electorate will become aware that, apart from cost and timeline issues, the Dutton nuclear fantasy does not add up. “Coal to nuclear transition”.
Seven nuclear plants are supposed to replace the current ~24 GW of coal power generation capacity.
Dutton has mentioned five “large”Westinghouse AP 1000 reactors, which are at least available, unlike the two SMRs he proposes.
But 24 of these large reactors would be needed to replace the 24 GW of coal, which is probably all to be retired by about 2038.
Apparently, no journalists or political commentators can do this simple arithmetic.
Yes, but I have two reservations that make me uneasy about this: 1. The ongoing oppression of our first people by our tolerant multicultural society as evidenced by the Voice referendum. Are we another Omelas (see https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/the-ones-who-walk-away) rotting from the core? 2. Is this not the same mistake the American Democrats made, taking urban, cosmopolitan point of view as reoresentative of the whole country? We have have many mostly white rural communities getting their opinions from Sky News free to air after all.
1. In my view, the failure of the Voice referendum shows nothing more than that referendums in Australia fail in the absence of bipartisan support. Albanese's belief that he could push it through on vibes alone was misconceived (as with most things Albo). The opposing slogan "If you don't know, vote No" was the generic case against any referendum. That's not to say there aren't big problems here/
2. The demographics here are very different. We are much more urban than the US. Moreover, unlike the US, rural voters in Australia have been solidly conservative for many decades. There are no votes left to lose in the bush.
Beaut quiet, gentle, andante piece on the benefits and achievements of our society, which don't include the had hankering for business class of our dismal pollies...
Thanks John. I like your overall message but have some strong concerns I wish to ask you about:
> "There’s no hope for any real progress under Labor as it stands, but also no real danger of disaster."
Actually, could Labor's incrementalism be a real danger for us? Our unfair status-quo and increasing inequality ferments people's contempt for politics, creating the preconditions in which a Trump can emerge. The only way we can avoid this is to pursue substantive democratic reforms that include and empower everyday people and build trust.
> "Australia is now so diverse that any attempt at the kind of white identity politics represented by Trump and others seems unlikely to succeed."
But isn't the USA diverse too, so how could we be protected when they weren't? I love our voting systems and institutions, but these safeguards could be surpassed if an authoritarian can convince ordinary people to vote for them against their own best interests. I'm not as confident as you that this can't happen here, and to stop it, we need to give people input into a population plan with a citizen's assembly. (The assembly could be trialled without legislation, so we wouldn't need a referendum.)
> "We also appear to have settled most of the culture war issues that are destroying the US without any great division."
We've also settled the idea of being mean to refugees, locking up children, banning protests, and jailing whistleblowers. ('Settled' in this context is referring only to ALP and LNP bipartisanship on all these issues). With these policies well-established, and without adequate protections for our human rights here (where the Americans are further ahead than us), is there a risk that this established meanness to 'others' could get inflated into something worse?
Lastly an open question:
There have been many, including Tim Dunlop (https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/all-things-must-pass) who recognise that Trump's election has emerged from a widespread disaffection amongst Americans. I wonder if it's also arisen because Americans might be more isolated - entertainment is on screens, dating is online, and discussions are distorted by algorithms. Do fewer people know and trust their neighbours now? And do we have the same problems in Australia?
If so, the only hope I have is that more communities can reconnect and talk about what they would like to see in their place, their nation, and their future. In consolation, this appears to be the way that we can show the world that no matter how bad things seem, we're not alone.
True, and thanks in no small part to our system of voting. Compulsory attendance at a polling station remains an underrated virtue.
But the consolation might be small if Trump takes the USA in a truly isolationist direction. The range of possibilities is frighteningly wide, and pretty much every plausible scenario makes the world worse off.
I agree we get a consolation prize. But I would point out that (sadly) our social cohesion was partly built on our bipartisan draconian policy on boat people refugees. The endless tide of boats was a big factor in the destruction of the Gillard government. And the Rudd and Abbott draconian (and probably illegal) actions on this were I think essential in calming popular feelings about immigration.
The feelings in the US population that there was uncontrolled damaging immigration (whether it was true or not) were a major factor in the swing to Trump particularly among Latinos.
Still reeling from the US outcome - but two points: (1) Another underrated virtue of our electoral system is, surely, preferential voting (compared with the US's largely 'winner takes all' system); and (2) there's no need to wonder what Trump will do - read Project 2025. But what is truly scary is what we have in common with the USA - the power of the corporates over people and government.
Well done on immigration! [Too bad the US took a wrong turn in the '20's. There would have been millions of fewer Jews in Europe for Hitler to murder and China woud not be so worrying, but for that mistake.]
Don't you also deserve first prize for macroeconomic management? How long has it been since RBA produced a recession? It certainly beats out BoE, the Fed, and especially the ECB
Labor's willingness to adopt "Stop the Boats" saved us from having a powerful neo-fascist party like the AfD in Germany or Sweden Democrats in Sweden. People have an instinctive fear of invasion and having their culture swamped by outsiders. Some of that fear is justified, much of it isn't- yet a frank discussion of the problems with mass migration from difficult to integrate communities is a taboo subject in Left circles, even though many Left leaning voters (such as myself) want that discussion. Those who doubt that some fears are justified might like to explain to me how the killing and intimidation of cartoonists, teachers and authors is nothing to worry about. They might also like to explain how Sweden's descent from one of the safest countries in Europe to a country gripped by gang violence is a nothing burger. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-join-forces-combat-spread-swedish-gang-crime-2024-08-14/
I would expect that the CEOs of the power companies will dissuade Dutton from pursuing nuclear.
Hopefully somehow soon the electorate will become aware that, apart from cost and timeline issues, the Dutton nuclear fantasy does not add up. “Coal to nuclear transition”.
Seven nuclear plants are supposed to replace the current ~24 GW of coal power generation capacity.
Dutton has mentioned five “large”Westinghouse AP 1000 reactors, which are at least available, unlike the two SMRs he proposes.
But 24 of these large reactors would be needed to replace the 24 GW of coal, which is probably all to be retired by about 2038.
Apparently, no journalists or political commentators can do this simple arithmetic.
Yes, but I have two reservations that make me uneasy about this: 1. The ongoing oppression of our first people by our tolerant multicultural society as evidenced by the Voice referendum. Are we another Omelas (see https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/the-ones-who-walk-away) rotting from the core? 2. Is this not the same mistake the American Democrats made, taking urban, cosmopolitan point of view as reoresentative of the whole country? We have have many mostly white rural communities getting their opinions from Sky News free to air after all.
1. In my view, the failure of the Voice referendum shows nothing more than that referendums in Australia fail in the absence of bipartisan support. Albanese's belief that he could push it through on vibes alone was misconceived (as with most things Albo). The opposing slogan "If you don't know, vote No" was the generic case against any referendum. That's not to say there aren't big problems here/
2. The demographics here are very different. We are much more urban than the US. Moreover, unlike the US, rural voters in Australia have been solidly conservative for many decades. There are no votes left to lose in the bush.
Beaut quiet, gentle, andante piece on the benefits and achievements of our society, which don't include the had hankering for business class of our dismal pollies...
Thanks John. I like your overall message but have some strong concerns I wish to ask you about:
> "There’s no hope for any real progress under Labor as it stands, but also no real danger of disaster."
Actually, could Labor's incrementalism be a real danger for us? Our unfair status-quo and increasing inequality ferments people's contempt for politics, creating the preconditions in which a Trump can emerge. The only way we can avoid this is to pursue substantive democratic reforms that include and empower everyday people and build trust.
> "Australia is now so diverse that any attempt at the kind of white identity politics represented by Trump and others seems unlikely to succeed."
But isn't the USA diverse too, so how could we be protected when they weren't? I love our voting systems and institutions, but these safeguards could be surpassed if an authoritarian can convince ordinary people to vote for them against their own best interests. I'm not as confident as you that this can't happen here, and to stop it, we need to give people input into a population plan with a citizen's assembly. (The assembly could be trialled without legislation, so we wouldn't need a referendum.)
> "We also appear to have settled most of the culture war issues that are destroying the US without any great division."
We've also settled the idea of being mean to refugees, locking up children, banning protests, and jailing whistleblowers. ('Settled' in this context is referring only to ALP and LNP bipartisanship on all these issues). With these policies well-established, and without adequate protections for our human rights here (where the Americans are further ahead than us), is there a risk that this established meanness to 'others' could get inflated into something worse?
Lastly an open question:
There have been many, including Tim Dunlop (https://tdunlop.substack.com/p/all-things-must-pass) who recognise that Trump's election has emerged from a widespread disaffection amongst Americans. I wonder if it's also arisen because Americans might be more isolated - entertainment is on screens, dating is online, and discussions are distorted by algorithms. Do fewer people know and trust their neighbours now? And do we have the same problems in Australia?
If so, the only hope I have is that more communities can reconnect and talk about what they would like to see in their place, their nation, and their future. In consolation, this appears to be the way that we can show the world that no matter how bad things seem, we're not alone.
True, and thanks in no small part to our system of voting. Compulsory attendance at a polling station remains an underrated virtue.
But the consolation might be small if Trump takes the USA in a truly isolationist direction. The range of possibilities is frighteningly wide, and pretty much every plausible scenario makes the world worse off.
I agree we get a consolation prize. But I would point out that (sadly) our social cohesion was partly built on our bipartisan draconian policy on boat people refugees. The endless tide of boats was a big factor in the destruction of the Gillard government. And the Rudd and Abbott draconian (and probably illegal) actions on this were I think essential in calming popular feelings about immigration.
The feelings in the US population that there was uncontrolled damaging immigration (whether it was true or not) were a major factor in the swing to Trump particularly among Latinos.
Still reeling from the US outcome - but two points: (1) Another underrated virtue of our electoral system is, surely, preferential voting (compared with the US's largely 'winner takes all' system); and (2) there's no need to wonder what Trump will do - read Project 2025. But what is truly scary is what we have in common with the USA - the power of the corporates over people and government.
Well done on immigration! [Too bad the US took a wrong turn in the '20's. There would have been millions of fewer Jews in Europe for Hitler to murder and China woud not be so worrying, but for that mistake.]
Don't you also deserve first prize for macroeconomic management? How long has it been since RBA produced a recession? It certainly beats out BoE, the Fed, and especially the ECB
Labor's willingness to adopt "Stop the Boats" saved us from having a powerful neo-fascist party like the AfD in Germany or Sweden Democrats in Sweden. People have an instinctive fear of invasion and having their culture swamped by outsiders. Some of that fear is justified, much of it isn't- yet a frank discussion of the problems with mass migration from difficult to integrate communities is a taboo subject in Left circles, even though many Left leaning voters (such as myself) want that discussion. Those who doubt that some fears are justified might like to explain to me how the killing and intimidation of cartoonists, teachers and authors is nothing to worry about. They might also like to explain how Sweden's descent from one of the safest countries in Europe to a country gripped by gang violence is a nothing burger. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-join-forces-combat-spread-swedish-gang-crime-2024-08-14/