The first Australian response to Trump was denial, then (unsuccessful) bargaining. Now there’s anger and depression as the tariffs sink in. Eventually must come acceptance
Even in the best case scenario for the return of US democracy, they wouldn't return as a functioning international partner for a decade. A landslide Democrat result in the mid terms couldn't undo the damage already done to institutions large and small. You'd need another New Deal, in a country which has just followed the lead of the wrong 1930s country.
I think you have too much faith in the continued existence of institutional norms in the US. Trump brazenly ignores the courts and nothing happens. He openly speaks about a third term. Why on earth would anyone believe that the ‘mid-terms’ in late 2026 will proceed as normal? Nothing now is ‘normal’.
My point was that, for Australia, there is no hope of a functioning US in the medium term, even in the most wildly optimistic scenario. I wasn't suggesting we cross our fingers and hope the Trump administration suddenly discovers a commitment to democracy.
"Acceptance will come with the recognition that the US is no longer part of our economic and geopolitical future."
I fear that the US may have other ideas. What, for instance, are the chances that they would vacate (effectively their) bases at Pine Gap, North West Cape and Darwin at our request?
This is a sadly compelling argument. I wonder about the other implications for Australia. One obvious (and regrettable) thought is that we will need to strengthen militarily. But I wonder what you feel the implications of our (and the world’s) dependance on US technology will be. As the US slides further in authoritarianism, I wonder if we'll eventually have similar security concerns to those we have with China.
Over the next 10-20 years Australia needs to develop an independent defence strategy in which we must develop a self sufficient armed forces. By all means develop defence partnerships but we must consider that no defence alliance can be guaranteed. This will mean increasing defence expenditure in the medium and long term up to 5% of GDP. We need to create manufacturing capacity to develop defence assets and equipment independent of overseas supply chains and sufficient munitions for defence. Oh, and air and sea drones, and missiles for a layered defence. This will require an increase in taxes. Which most probably means it won’t happen as any discussion about increasing taxes is anathema in the current Australian political climate.
Too much land, not enough people, economy too small. The USA needs Australia for a southern base to project into southern Asia, the Indian Ocean, and especially the Malacca Strait. That's why the B1B bombers squadrons rotate through Darwin. The airport is also needed as a stopover for aircraft and ships transitting to Diego Garcia. The Jindalee over the horizon and other surveillance facilities at Pine Gap are irreplacable. The communication centre in Western Australia is vital for submarine communications. Our ports are necessary for naval and submarine operations in the Indian Ocean.
Whatever else happens I don't think the USA is willing to give up those facilties. The USA survived Bush II, Trump is not working to a plan he flailing about. It is too early to declare that a new order has been established.
I have no idea. And maybe 5% is too much. What I fear is that the international political system is going through a period of instability. And in such an environment Australia needs to ensure that we are not worth attacking. An Echnida deep layered defence is the best way of ensuring that any country who may think Australia may be worth will think twice.
G'day Mark, who do you feel we need this layered missile defence and the huge 5% of gdp spend to defend against. Surely not China.
Until politicians like Marles and sad to say even Penny Wong are replaced by non aligned independent MHR then we will be tied to the US MIC military industrial complex. Have a look at what Penny Wong was saying when she was shadow foreign minister and compare it to her present position. Marles has not had the 180deg about face like Wong and Germany's Baerbock.
Neutrality like Indonesia not taking sides as members of ASEAN do is better than impoverishing our citizens with 5% spend on death instruments that have proved useless in the smo in Ukraine anyhow.
I only hope that the us can self-correct and remove trump very soon. It will not prevent the damage you speak about here but it will prevent I hope the only logical next step of escalation for trump n co - war.
Historically, the USA's economic strength and stability have revolved around the dollar’s status and privileges. Trump, his tariffs, the plan for massive increases in US deficits and debt undermine the dollar’s dominance and will create an economic and financial crisis in the US in the process.
As long as the political system is unable to prevent morons like him from attaining office or stop them from their worst impulses, that another Trump is possible, it doesn't matter if Dems wins every election in the next 20 yrs. The faith and credit of the US is forever damaged.
Speaking of scientific émigrés from Germany in the 1930s, Kurt Gödel believed he'd spotted a flaw in the US Constitution that would allow the country to slide into fascism. Einstein kicked his ankle to make him shut up when he was starting to elucidate it to the judge who was about to grant him US citizenship.
Do you reckon Cheeto Benito and his henchthungs might've lucked into it?
Our Host may be right. But the desire to believe in a benevolent Daddy is strong. The political world shrugged off Bush II and Trump I. The financial world still believes in the healing power of the Federal Reserve swap lines.
Pedantry alert ahead: when Kipling wrote of "lesser breeds without the Law," he was referring to the Germans, I think specifically Kaiser Wilhelm II.
Even in the best case scenario for the return of US democracy, they wouldn't return as a functioning international partner for a decade. A landslide Democrat result in the mid terms couldn't undo the damage already done to institutions large and small. You'd need another New Deal, in a country which has just followed the lead of the wrong 1930s country.
I think you have too much faith in the continued existence of institutional norms in the US. Trump brazenly ignores the courts and nothing happens. He openly speaks about a third term. Why on earth would anyone believe that the ‘mid-terms’ in late 2026 will proceed as normal? Nothing now is ‘normal’.
My point was that, for Australia, there is no hope of a functioning US in the medium term, even in the most wildly optimistic scenario. I wasn't suggesting we cross our fingers and hope the Trump administration suddenly discovers a commitment to democracy.
"Acceptance will come with the recognition that the US is no longer part of our economic and geopolitical future."
I fear that the US may have other ideas. What, for instance, are the chances that they would vacate (effectively their) bases at Pine Gap, North West Cape and Darwin at our request?
This is a sadly compelling argument. I wonder about the other implications for Australia. One obvious (and regrettable) thought is that we will need to strengthen militarily. But I wonder what you feel the implications of our (and the world’s) dependance on US technology will be. As the US slides further in authoritarianism, I wonder if we'll eventually have similar security concerns to those we have with China.
Over the next 10-20 years Australia needs to develop an independent defence strategy in which we must develop a self sufficient armed forces. By all means develop defence partnerships but we must consider that no defence alliance can be guaranteed. This will mean increasing defence expenditure in the medium and long term up to 5% of GDP. We need to create manufacturing capacity to develop defence assets and equipment independent of overseas supply chains and sufficient munitions for defence. Oh, and air and sea drones, and missiles for a layered defence. This will require an increase in taxes. Which most probably means it won’t happen as any discussion about increasing taxes is anathema in the current Australian political climate.
Too much land, not enough people, economy too small. The USA needs Australia for a southern base to project into southern Asia, the Indian Ocean, and especially the Malacca Strait. That's why the B1B bombers squadrons rotate through Darwin. The airport is also needed as a stopover for aircraft and ships transitting to Diego Garcia. The Jindalee over the horizon and other surveillance facilities at Pine Gap are irreplacable. The communication centre in Western Australia is vital for submarine communications. Our ports are necessary for naval and submarine operations in the Indian Ocean.
Whatever else happens I don't think the USA is willing to give up those facilties. The USA survived Bush II, Trump is not working to a plan he flailing about. It is too early to declare that a new order has been established.
I have no idea. And maybe 5% is too much. What I fear is that the international political system is going through a period of instability. And in such an environment Australia needs to ensure that we are not worth attacking. An Echnida deep layered defence is the best way of ensuring that any country who may think Australia may be worth will think twice.
G'day Mark, who do you feel we need this layered missile defence and the huge 5% of gdp spend to defend against. Surely not China.
Until politicians like Marles and sad to say even Penny Wong are replaced by non aligned independent MHR then we will be tied to the US MIC military industrial complex. Have a look at what Penny Wong was saying when she was shadow foreign minister and compare it to her present position. Marles has not had the 180deg about face like Wong and Germany's Baerbock.
Neutrality like Indonesia not taking sides as members of ASEAN do is better than impoverishing our citizens with 5% spend on death instruments that have proved useless in the smo in Ukraine anyhow.
Classic CCP propaganda talking points….
I only hope that the us can self-correct and remove trump very soon. It will not prevent the damage you speak about here but it will prevent I hope the only logical next step of escalation for trump n co - war.
Historically, the USA's economic strength and stability have revolved around the dollar’s status and privileges. Trump, his tariffs, the plan for massive increases in US deficits and debt undermine the dollar’s dominance and will create an economic and financial crisis in the US in the process.
As long as the political system is unable to prevent morons like him from attaining office or stop them from their worst impulses, that another Trump is possible, it doesn't matter if Dems wins every election in the next 20 yrs. The faith and credit of the US is forever damaged.
Yes we must
Speaking of scientific émigrés from Germany in the 1930s, Kurt Gödel believed he'd spotted a flaw in the US Constitution that would allow the country to slide into fascism. Einstein kicked his ankle to make him shut up when he was starting to elucidate it to the judge who was about to grant him US citizenship.
Do you reckon Cheeto Benito and his henchthungs might've lucked into it?
Our Host may be right. But the desire to believe in a benevolent Daddy is strong. The political world shrugged off Bush II and Trump I. The financial world still believes in the healing power of the Federal Reserve swap lines.
Pedantry alert ahead: when Kipling wrote of "lesser breeds without the Law," he was referring to the Germans, I think specifically Kaiser Wilhelm II.