Are the nuclear submarines intended to give us (or is that US?) the option to close down trade in Australian commodities to China? Will solar panels, inverters, wind turbines, batteries, EV's feature as the kinds of goods that somehow it is essential we suppress for the sake of enduring US dominance?
For all the alarmist fear of globalism I think the USA and it's allies (including Australia) have made a strategic mistake by elevating their unilateral power to interfere and use force above the power of international law; their/our efforts to suppress the economic growth and interfere in the internal affairs of the world's most populous nation is not the way to build a world order where the most powerful (China, India) don't act unilaterally. Seems like all out effort to suppress China will just assure China WILL perceive us as enemy, not legitimate adversary and will act accordingly. To our detriment.
As you rightly point out John, AUKUS does not make economic sense and on the surface does not make national security sense. But if one believes that the biggest threat to peace in the Asia-Pacific is the US, it does make sense. There are so many ways the US national security establishment and/or US mad-men could accidentally or deliberately cause military conflict between the US and China, it is terrifying. And the most effective way for Australia to be able to influence the US towards a sane path, is to work very closely with the US. AUKUS is the price we pay for greater influence. Wong and Albanese obviously cannot say publicly this is their strategy. And I could be wrong that this is their strategy. But it's worth keeping this possibility in mind as we observe US/Australia/China relations.
I think it is pretty well inevitable that sometime in the next 30 years the US will withdraw from this part of the world and let China have East Asia as it's sphere of influence. The Asian countries in the region including Australia should be able to work out a deal with China which mostly maintains our independence, much as we and other countries have been able to work out a defacto deal with the US in the last 70 years which keeps us mostly independent without too much tribute. The problem is the transition to a new superpower arrangement, and there is a high risk of accidental conflict during this period. Noone wants a full scale military conflict as there are too many downsides for both sides if that happens. But it could happen due to miscalculation or stupidity. And those are two things it is hard to guard against.
China is behaving now, like Imperial Japan did back in the 1930s. With an expanding naval presence in the Pacific, Communist China is now the bully of this region. Its naval assets patrol waters NOT recognised as part of its exclusion zone. On its land borders it is ever ready to push disputed territorial claims to the point of military action. Global Confrontation seems inevitable, especially over Taiwan and its border with India. If such a confrontation does occur it may be the flashpoint to war with the USA. If that happens, Australia will be drawn in too, due to its ANZUS treaty and the AUKUS agreement. That would be catastrophic for Australia. Just like in the 1940s, it would be in the strategic interests of both the USA and the UK, to let Australia to take the full
force of a naval invasion from China. The words of Winston Churchill echo from his grave. But there is no John Curtain to lead Australia this time. Both ALP and LNP leaders have been sycophants of White House policy. The presence of US marines in the Northern Territory and the operation of the Pine Gap facility, makes Australia a natural target in times of war with China. There is no effective leadership in Canberra just a “Me Too” consensus that it’s all the way with the USA.
Meanwhile Australian taxpayers dollars will be used to build nuclear powered subs in both the USA and the UK. Australia will NOT have exclusive control of this naval hardware. That is why it will not benefit our individual national security.
Willy thinking from Canberra once more places the lives of Australian defence force personnel in serious jepody.
Are the nuclear submarines intended to give us (or is that US?) the option to close down trade in Australian commodities to China? Will solar panels, inverters, wind turbines, batteries, EV's feature as the kinds of goods that somehow it is essential we suppress for the sake of enduring US dominance?
For all the alarmist fear of globalism I think the USA and it's allies (including Australia) have made a strategic mistake by elevating their unilateral power to interfere and use force above the power of international law; their/our efforts to suppress the economic growth and interfere in the internal affairs of the world's most populous nation is not the way to build a world order where the most powerful (China, India) don't act unilaterally. Seems like all out effort to suppress China will just assure China WILL perceive us as enemy, not legitimate adversary and will act accordingly. To our detriment.
As you rightly point out John, AUKUS does not make economic sense and on the surface does not make national security sense. But if one believes that the biggest threat to peace in the Asia-Pacific is the US, it does make sense. There are so many ways the US national security establishment and/or US mad-men could accidentally or deliberately cause military conflict between the US and China, it is terrifying. And the most effective way for Australia to be able to influence the US towards a sane path, is to work very closely with the US. AUKUS is the price we pay for greater influence. Wong and Albanese obviously cannot say publicly this is their strategy. And I could be wrong that this is their strategy. But it's worth keeping this possibility in mind as we observe US/Australia/China relations.
I think it is pretty well inevitable that sometime in the next 30 years the US will withdraw from this part of the world and let China have East Asia as it's sphere of influence. The Asian countries in the region including Australia should be able to work out a deal with China which mostly maintains our independence, much as we and other countries have been able to work out a defacto deal with the US in the last 70 years which keeps us mostly independent without too much tribute. The problem is the transition to a new superpower arrangement, and there is a high risk of accidental conflict during this period. Noone wants a full scale military conflict as there are too many downsides for both sides if that happens. But it could happen due to miscalculation or stupidity. And those are two things it is hard to guard against.
China is behaving now, like Imperial Japan did back in the 1930s. With an expanding naval presence in the Pacific, Communist China is now the bully of this region. Its naval assets patrol waters NOT recognised as part of its exclusion zone. On its land borders it is ever ready to push disputed territorial claims to the point of military action. Global Confrontation seems inevitable, especially over Taiwan and its border with India. If such a confrontation does occur it may be the flashpoint to war with the USA. If that happens, Australia will be drawn in too, due to its ANZUS treaty and the AUKUS agreement. That would be catastrophic for Australia. Just like in the 1940s, it would be in the strategic interests of both the USA and the UK, to let Australia to take the full
force of a naval invasion from China. The words of Winston Churchill echo from his grave. But there is no John Curtain to lead Australia this time. Both ALP and LNP leaders have been sycophants of White House policy. The presence of US marines in the Northern Territory and the operation of the Pine Gap facility, makes Australia a natural target in times of war with China. There is no effective leadership in Canberra just a “Me Too” consensus that it’s all the way with the USA.
Meanwhile Australian taxpayers dollars will be used to build nuclear powered subs in both the USA and the UK. Australia will NOT have exclusive control of this naval hardware. That is why it will not benefit our individual national security.
Willy thinking from Canberra once more places the lives of Australian defence force personnel in serious jepody.