Underestimating Albanese

It seems pretty clear that I’ve underestimated both the Albanese governments chances for a second term and the prospects for getting the Voice referendum passed. So, I’m considering where I got things wrong.

First, I underestimated how bad the LNP Opposition would be. In part that’s because I assumed it would be led by Frydenberg. I’m not a fan, but he would have been much more effective than Dutton. Relatedly, I’ve been surprised by the unwillingness of the LNP to give an inch on the various culture war issues on which it is losing so badly among young voters (climate, trans rights, indigenous issues among others).

My next reassessment relates to economic performance. Since the change of government, most workers have seen their real wages reduced. To be sure, that’s part of a global inflationary trend over which the government has little control. But historically, that hasn’t mattered - if the economy goes badly, the incumbent government gets the blame. So far, at least, the failure of wages to keep pace with inflation has been framed as the “cost of living”, which in turn has been treated as something like the weather.

It remains to be seen whether this dream run survives the end of the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset, effectively raising taxes on most workers. That will depend in part on whether the next budget delivers the Stage Three Tax cuts for high-income earners. But so far at least, the Labor government has been successful in blaming its predecessors for policy commitments it has chosen to implement.

As regards the Voice, I’m still worried about the possibility of defeat. But so far at least, the problems have all been on the LNP side. The core of the problem is that, while some opponents/sceptics are genuinely doubtful about the way the Voice will work, the dominant view on the right is opposition to any form of special recognition for Indigenous Australians. Those in the first group (Leeser, state leaders and others) are gradually shifting to support a Yes vote. This effectively validates Albanese’s line that those asking for more details are simply covering up racist opposition.

Despite this, the risk of failure is still high. Having effectively wedged Dutton into advocating a half-baked compromise, it would be good to present a provisional model.

Suppose that the Voice referendum is passed, and Labor gets a second term. Will we see more than the incremental shifts we’ve had so far. Or will the government campaign on the basis that, having delivered its minuscule 2022 commitments, it’s time for “steady as she goes”. I honestly don’t know.