The Thirty-Nine Steps
Will anyone blow the whistle on the impending death of US democracy?
At the end of <em>The Thirty-Nine Steps</em> (the John Buchan novel that largely created the spy thriller genre), the hero is about to give the signal for arrest of a ring of German spies. But their pose as ordinary middle class Englishmen is so convincing that they persuade him to join them as a fourth for bridge. Fortunately, a sudden movement alerts him to their true identity and he comes to his senses, blowing his whistle to call in the waiting police.
I’m reminded of this whenever I look at the political scene in the United States. The Republicans have made it obvious that if the votes in the 2024 election go the wrong way for them, the result will be overturned and their candidate (most likely Trump) will be installed. If they win under the existing rules, they will change them to ensure that no Democrat is ever elected again. Yet everyone is pretending that the situation is normal, trying to work out whether (for example) Roe v Wade is a trump card, and if so, who holds it.
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The obvious question is: who, if anyone, will blow the whistle? Unfortunately, if there ever was a moment to do it, that moment has passed. Perhaps Biden should have invoked the Insurrection Act immediately after taking office, and arrested Trump and the Republicans who voted to overturn the election. But that was never going to happen, and would have failed in any case.
Nothing is forever. That includes democratic governments and the autocracies that have so often replaced them, only to fail in their turn. At some point, the whistle will be blown, but that point could be a long way off.
Meanwhile, there’s time to take a few more tricks before the game is called off.
I agree John that US democracy is in great trouble if the Republicans win the next presidential election by fair means or foul, especially if Trump is their leader. But it will be very very difficult for Trump to win by blatantly foul means if there is Democrat president with a Democrat vice president as President of the senate. A clear vote for a Democrat president in 2024 would be very hard to overturn in the courts or the Senate because of the Democrat's control of the Presidency and the bureaucracy.
Therefore the Democrats should focus on getting a clear victory in the swing states in 2024 by things like tens of thousands of Democrats moving to the swing states and by pork barrelling those states with cost effective investments and by lots of grass roots organising. It's a whatever it takes time I'm afraid.