The end of US democracy: a flowchart
A revised version
I spend a lot of time these days thinking about what I, and Australia as a nation, should do if the US ceases to be a democracy. But, it doesn’t seem as if lots of other people are thinking this way. One possibility is that people just don’t want to think about it. Another, though, is that I’ve overestimated the probability of this outcome.
To check on this, I set up a flowchart using a free online program called drawio. Here;s what I came up with
I hope it’s self-explanatory. The bold numbers next to the boxes are the probability of reaching that box. The numbers next to arrows coming out of decision nodes (diamonds) are the probability of that decision.
I also apologize in advance if there are any arithmetic errors - my degree in pure mathematics doesn’t insulate me against them.
Update: As I expected, there was an arithmetic error, fixed now. This changes the odds marginally, with the end of democracy having a 52% probability. I also amended the flow so that a successful Trump coup leads directly the “popular resistance” decision box. Finally I tried to explain the paths leading from a Harris presidency to a MAGA resurgence and the end of democracy
If the US were remotely normal, every entry on the left-hand edge ought to be equal to 1. Harris should be a sure winner, Trump shouldn’t find any supporters for a coup, the MAGA Republicans in Congress should be unelectable and the moderate program proposed by Harris should be successful enough that Trumpism would be defeated forever.
But that’s not the case. There are two end points in which US democracy survives, with a total probability (excessively precise) of 0.46, and one where it ends, with a probability of 0.54. By replacing my probabilities at the decision nodes with your own, you can come up with your own numbers. Or you may feel that I’ve missed crucial pathways. I’d be interested in comments on either line.
Note: Any Thälmann-style comments (such as “After Trump, us” or “Dems are social fascists anyway”) will be blocked and deleted.
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A book of mine, dealing with (among other things) what the Hohenzollerns were doing in the Weimar Republic, will be released in a few days' time by the Pen and Sword imprint in Yorkshire. Researching the Hohenzollern chapter naturally forced me to trace the timeline of Thälmann's electioneering.
I learned, depressingly enough, that although Thälmann's policies as presidential candidate were in every respect far stupider in 1932 than they had been even in 1925, they won him far more votes. What implications this dispiriting datum has for the American election, I would not like to say. For the same reasons as Kilometres Davis, in 2024 I consume as little news as possible.
Robert Reich is cautiously optimistic but is concerned about JD Vance and his backers. But should Harris win, and that’s becoming more of a certainty, there’s still a long way to go to restore equality.