The case for AUKUS falls apart

Why now?

Anthony Albanese, Penny Wong and Richard Marles could be forgiven today for feeling as if they had been sucker-punched by the mainstream mass media. After weeks of clamor for the most aggressive possible action against China, and cheers for the prospective AUKUS deal, we were suddenly treated to a string of stories that make the whole deal look like a disaster (which it is)

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First, there was the sudden discovery that submarines are going to become obsolete in the near future because their special power (effective invisibility) will be cancelled by underwater drones and improvements in satellit technology.

Then, we had not one, but two, former Prime Ministers pointing out that the UK is not at all a reliable partner in the deal, given its own existential problems.

Finally, Peter Dutton helpfully offered bipartisan support on the cuts that will be needed to make room for this massive expenditure, nominating the NDIS as the prime target. Unsurprisingly, Bill Shorten wasn’t happy, but if PM Albanese and Treasurer Chalmers rejected the offer, I’ve missed the memo.

What’s striking is that all of these stories (apart from the direct quotes) could have been written at any time since the AUKUS deal was signed.

Here’s a story from 2020 on underwater drones, specifically contrasting them with the Virginia class submarines central to AUKUS. The RAN already has its own drones on order and is confident of their ability to make life very difficult for hostile submarines. This material isn’t hard to find - it was old news when I tweeted about it last year.

As for the UK, the fact that it is a declining force, irrelevant to our region, has been obvious for a long time, though apparently not to everyone. But if you read this response (ignore the headline and read the text) from Labour leader Keir Starmer, it’s obvious that AUKUS will be at the bottom of UK priorities once the Tories are out of office. Albanese was apparently more impressed by Rishi Sunak.

As for cutting NDIS, or some similarly important domestic program, it’s a matter of simple arithmetic. Labor came into office with a commitment to delivering a big tax cut to well-off households, while reducing a large deficit. Add in a gigantic weapons program and the implications are inescapable.

If the MSM had made some of these points a few months ago, we might have seen a more cautious approach from the Albanese government. As it is, they’ve made AUKUS their own, and will have to live with the consequences.