Ongoing productivity damage from Covid-19: mitigating impacts

Another submission to the "Productivity Roundtable"

Jul 28, 2025

Here’s another submission to Albanese’s productivity summit (official title “Treasury Economic Reform Roundtable). From the Clean Air Collective, with some input from me/

Crises in history can provide opportunities to address long-standing problems, but only if we squarely face the issues raised can we implement effective ways of mitigating risks.

Despite much wishful thinking, Covid remains a major economic problem for Australia because of ongoing serious impacts on productivity, not to mention rising private and public healthcare costs. But instead of paying attention to the emerging scientific research, we are choosing to pretend the virus is now “mild” and return to our previous habits.

With the effective abandonment of most forms of testing and reporting, it is hard to assess the true prevalence of Covid and its impact on the economy. However, there is substantial global evidence of increased worker absenteeism associated with both acute Covid cases and post-Covid conditions (including Long Covid). Growing evidence also suggests cumulative damage to various organ systems and the immune system after repeated infections, even if apparently “mild”.

A workforce cannot be fully productive while being repeatedly hit with waves of illness across the year, especially when this new virus can impact any part of the body, increases our susceptibility to other infections and is known to cause longer-term problems and disability. A particularly worrying element is this virus’s ability to cause ongoing brain inflammation with lasting impacts on cognition, mental health and, of course, productivity.

As is now well understood, Covid is an airborne virus. Most transmission occurs due to fine aerosols which build up in areas with poor ventilation and inadequate filtration. However, Workplace Health and Safety policy has not changed significantly from the initial phase of the pandemic when it was assumed incorrectly that transmission was primarily via large droplets and poor hand hygiene. Posters giving advice based on this assumption are still present in many workplaces and other locations. Public Health education needs to be updated to reflect what we now know.

If we mitigate against this highly transmissible airborne disease, we will create an effective line of defence against a range of other pathogens (viral, bacterial or fungal), as well as reducing the impact of contaminants in indoor air (Volatile Organic Compounds, bushfire smoke, etc). We often talk about pandemic preparedness in terms of sentinel testing and vaccine development, but reducing the risks of airborne transmission solves a range of current problems in addition to making us less vulnerable to future airborne pandemics.

Imagine a winter (or, now, a season) without large numbers of absences due to airborne diseases, and with the added benefit of workers being able to concentrate better on their work. To realise these opportunities, we need to apply the knowledge gained by aerosol scientists and engineers and take action to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) in workplaces, healthcare and schools (where much of the transmission between households occurs).

Poor IAQ negatively impacts productivity through increased illness (short- and long-term)

Workplaces and schools with poor IAQ provide the perfect environment for airborne diseases to spread easily and we now know that even some diseases commonly associated with poor hand hygiene (such as norovirus) can be airborne. [5]

Multiple waves of illness each year increase absenteeism (not only of the worker directly, but by workers having to take time off to look after children or other family members).

The significant proportion of asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission of Covid means workers can unwittingly infect their coworkers – making it essential to lower risk by improving IAQ and providing protective equipment, including N95 respirators. [6]

We hear a lot about “burnout” at present, but how much of this might be due to workers often having to fill in for sick colleagues, or being repeatedly ill but having to keep going because they have used up their sick leave? Infections such as Covid, which can lead to a range of longer-term illnesses and chronic conditions, can cause the loss of skilled workers for lengthy periods or even permanently. This has a serious impact on productivity through loss of domain knowledge and increasing the need for the training of new staff.

The ongoing research on the outcomes of Covid and many other pathogens puts the lie to the cliché, “what doesn’t kill us makes us stronger”. Nor should we assume that a lower-level reaction by our immune system implies a low-risk infection; both “mild” infections and multiple infections can have continuing consequences. This virus can dampen the immune response. [7]

Impact of poor IAQ on cognitive function

Leaving aside issues of illness, (both short- and long-term), poor IAQ is known to impact the cognitive function of workers, through drowsiness, disengagement, poor concentration and headaches. Most of us will have been in meetings in crowded rooms where we start to feel drowsy. I used to assume that it was due to the speaker not being engaging. It probably had more to do with the build-up of CO2.

For those who have started carrying around portable CO2 monitors, it is alarming to see buses, for instance, with CO2 concentrations about 20 times outdoor readings. How many accidents or near misses occur through the resultant driver fatigue and inattention?

Legal obligations to provide a safe working environment

In the absence of a wider range of measures (including testing, isolation and mask requirements) to reduce the risk of Covid transmission and with a major “return to the office” push, employers may be in breach of their legal obligation to maintain a safe working environment unless they significantly improve IAQ.

Creating new IAQ standards

The creation of appropriate ventilation standards is a complex issue, but the simplest way to estimate the likelihood of airborne transmission is to measure the amount of rebreathed air in the indoor atmosphere through widespread CO2 monitoring (as is already happening in some countries). [8] This provides a prompt for people to increase ventilation (for instance, opening a window or door, if possible) or to increase air filtration. Research is showing that the level of CO2 in the air also impacts the stability and infectivity of viral particles which confirms “the critical importance of ventilation and maintaining low CO2 concentrations in indoor environments for mitigating disease transmission”. [9]

Old standards for CO2 concentrations developed before the current pandemic are now regarded as being insufficient to cope with the increased danger associated with airborne Covid (or any future serious pathogen). [10] Ideally, the measures we institute on a large scale should be as unobtrusive and non-restrictive as possible and should start with upgrading HVAC systems for greater air changes per hour, using HEPA filters/air purifiers and far UVC. [11]

Improving IAQ is good for productivity and for the economy

If we want to improve workplace productivity (and enjoy the added benefits of improving population health and reducing the ongoing strain on our healthcare system) now is a good time to make a concerted effort to improve IAQ (the modern equivalent to John Snow and the C19th actions on improving water quality). As Senator Michelle Ananda-Rajah said at the launch of the Safer Air Project’s report [12] at Parliament House late last year: “Productivity gains are on everyone’s lips, everyone is looking to make people more productive and frankly sick people aren’t productive… Illness can cut people short in the peak of their lives … [improving IAQ] is how our country stays healthy and productive”.

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