Mitigating the productivity damage from Covid-19: the case for improved ventilation standards

I wrote this for the Cleaner Air Collective, who used it as an input to their submission to the Productivity Roundtable

Aug 09, 2025

Given the purpose of the exercise, the discussion is framed in terms of productivity though many of the issues are broader

Covid-19 is a serious economic problem for Australia, not only as a major cause of death, but because of serious impacts in productivity.

Although most Covid-19 deaths occur among people over 80, there were over 200 deaths from Covid among people aged 40-64. This is a mortality rate comparable to that of road trauma (377 deaths in this age group in 2022) As of 2023, excess mortality remained high at 5 per cent

With the effective abandonment of most forms of reporting, it is hard to assess the prevalence and impact of Covid-related morbidity. However, there is substantial global evidence of increased worker absenteeism associated with both acute Covid-cases and post-Covid conditions (long Covid). Evidence also suggests cumulative damage to various organs associated with repeated infection.

The economic loss associated with Covid-related work absence and chronic illness is substantial. For example, Goda and Saltas (2023) found that workers with week-long Covid-19 absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 absences have reduced the U.S. labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults). Konishi et al found substantial productivity reductions associated with long Covid.
Long Covid also generates substantial costs for the health system. Rafferty et al give estimates for Canada ranging from $CAD 8-50 billion in annual costs

(Source: Wall Street Journal)

As is now well understood, Covid-19 is an airborne virus. Transmission risk depends on primarily on time spent in environments with high virus loads. However, workplace health and safety policy has not adjusted significantly from the initial phase of the pandemic in which it was assumed that transmission was primarily via droplets. Posters giving advice based on this assumption are still present in many workplaces and other locations.

In the absence of appropriate measures to reduce the risk of Covid-19 transmission, employers are in breach of their legal obligation to maintain a safe working environment. With the abandonment of mask and vaccination requirements, improved air quality is the only practical option for reducing workplace transmission.

The formulation of appropriate ventilation standards is a complex issue, depending on the number of people occupying a given space, the prevalence of Covid-19 among them, and whether people are coming and going. The simplest measures relate to concentrations of CO2 in the indoor atmosphere.

Standards for CO2 concentrations developed prior to the Covid-19 pandemic typically suggested a threshold of 1000ppm. However, the increased danger associated with airborne Covid implies the desirability of a lower threshold.

The Association of Consulting Architects states “Outside air is 400–415 parts per million (ppm) CO2 and a well-ventilated indoor environment will be less than 800 ppm with best practice being around 600 ppm”.

Similarly, Wang et al, responding to evidence of airborne transmission, suggest a range of 700ppm to 800 ppm

In summary, continued endemic transmission of Covid-19 represents a serious threat to productivity in Australia. A sustained policy effort to improve ventilation in workplaces and other public buildings is one of the few remaining policy responses available to mitigate this threat.

John Quiggin's Blogstack

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