Irresistible Force meets Immovable Object
I'll be presenting a talk at the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society conference. Title Irresistible Force* meets Immovable Object**
* Massive expansion in production of low-cost solar PV
** Entrenched resistance to deployment.
Shorter JQ: Irresistible force will win in the end
Presentation is here
While I’m waiting for the security Smaug to unlock the pearls of wisdom, a striking update from China: solar PV grew there by 216.9 GW in 2023 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-26/china-added-more-solar-panels-in-2023-than-us-did-in-its-entire-history .
Context in a detailed take on China from Lauri Myllyvirta, using a broad definition of “clean energy” sectors, including electric road vehicles and trains: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-was-top-driver-of-chinas-economic-growth-in-2023/
“ Clean-energy investment rose 40% year-on-year to 6.3tn yuan ($890bn), with the growth accounting for all of the investment growth across the Chinese economy in 2023. China’s $890bn investment in clean-energy sectors is almost as large as total global investments in fossil fuel supply in 2023 – and similar to the GDP of Switzerland or Turkey.
Including the value of production, clean-energy sectors contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to the Chinese economy in 2023, up 30% year-on-year. Clean-energy sectors, as a result, were the largest driver of China’ economic growth overall, accounting for 40% of the expansion of GDP in 2023. Without the growth from clean-energy sectors, China’s GDP would have missed the government’s growth target of “around 5%”, rising by only 3.0% instead of 5.2%.”
Since the real estate crisis continues, TINA to the clean energy policy in 2024. Curiously, building efficiency through heat pumps and insulation has missed out on the boom – for now.
Re the “immovable object”. The political economy of this major shift in China is surely significant. Myllyvirta again:
“The major role that clean energy played in boosting growth in 2023 means the industry is now a key part of China’s wider economic and industrial development. This is likely to bolster China’s climate and energy policies – as well as its “dual carbon” targets for 2030 and 2060 – by enhancing the economic and political relevance of the sector.”
This understates matters. As recently as two years ago, the Chinese leadership used the old Gosplan playbook to drive the recovery from the pandemic – coal, steel, cement, construction. With the real estate sector in deep crisis, these sectors sputtered in 2023. The unstated compact with the Chinese people that keeps the CCP oligarchy in power – its “Mandate from Earth” to coin a phrase – is “you give us steady growth in living standards, we won’t demand democracy”. The compact was only kept in 2023 thanks to clean energy, and everybody knows it. The next time the coal barons ask for favours to protect their profits from green competition, they are much less likely to get them. China’s aggressive external economic diplomacy, in Africa, Latin America and the BRI neighbourhood, is likely to shift from promoting fossil fuels and infrastructure to electric grids and vehicles, rail, mass solarization to mop up the 300 GW/yr growth in Chinese PV production capacity, and so on.
Two small cherries on the good news cake:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/01/26/aeg-launches-23-3-efficient-abc-solar-panel-with-40-year-warranty/ These are pretty standard premium panels with glass on both sides, sealed into an aluminium frame, nothing rivals can’t emulate. Expect more long warranties.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/02/02/vitamin-c-treatment-improves-stability-of-inverted-organic-solar-cells/
I wouldn’t rush out to buy Danish Vitamin C futures if I were you.
Obstructing the things that will make RE reliable and reduce their costs seems to be the current priority for "renewables aren't reliable" fossil fuel supporting climate science deniers. When RE was expensive and difficult RE was not to be feared - give em enough rope even - but now RE works cost effectively transmission lines, wind farms (especially off shore), batteries, EV's all need to be remade into things to not just doubt but to fear, all to save Fossil Fuels from global warming.
Given that Doubt, Deny, Delay deliberately framed the issue around environmentalism and opposing that - in order that it NOT be about global warming - many of the LNP seem to believe their own BS and imagine the growth of RE pivots on Environmentalism. Increasingly it is purely a commercial decision and I think the attempts to wedge Environmentalism on RE won't work - but their capacity for slowing the transition down and making it harder shouldn't be underestimated.
Not that Labor's positioning on emissions is a lot better. Absence of direct hostility to RE on the one hand goes with unbounded willingness to support massive growth of fossil fuel extraction on the other - including for gas that is so high in CO2 it will be a major source of emissions just processing it into gas good enough to sell. The great CCS lie (like the Offsets lie) is alive and well within Labor and excuses all. I suppose they won't be around when the CCS fails and most of the CO2 gets emitted after all.
We see Labor Ministers willing to line up arm in arm with the biggest fossil fuel miners and argue in our highest courts that they have no duty of care. Wow.
I say bring on a hung Parliament dependent on Greens and Teals!